The Denver Nuggets travel to Dallas to face the Mavericks on Wednesday night in a Western Conference contest that features two banged-up rosters. The Nuggets are missing MVP candidate Nikola Jokic, while the Mavs are trying to adjust to life without Anthony Davis. But one team has to come away with the win in this contest from the Metroplex. Before tip-off from Dallas, continue reading to get my Nuggets vs Mavericks prediction in the NBA.
Our Nuggets vs Mavericks Pick
Pick: | Mavericks -1.5 ATS PRO |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks
- Date & Time: Wednesday, January 14, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
- The Nuggets have been firing offensively, with Murray leading the charge after a 35-point night in their last game and Denver securing four wins in five outings. This offense has kept Denver competitive even with several rotation players listed as day-to-day. Nikola Jokic remains out with his knee injury, though, which has made life difficult on the Mavs throughout the season so far.
- The Mavericks continue to fight through a tough season. Dallas sits well below .500 and has lost ground in the West, wrestling with injuries, including the absence of Anthony Davis. Davis continues to recover from a hand injury that could keep him out for multiple weeks. While rookie Cooper Flagg has been excellent, injuries have prevented the Mavs from putting enough talent around him for the team to have any sort of sustained success this year.
- Dallas’ offensive responsibilities have shifted to younger players like Flagg, and the team has had mixed results lately. Dallas has lost two of its last three games and they must contend with a Nuggets squad adept at three-point shooting and scoring even without Jokic on the floor.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- The Mavs are 2-0 against the Nuggets so far this season.
- Denver is 24-16 against the spread going into this matchup.
- The Mavs hold a 17-23 record against the spread on the season.
- The Nuggets are an NBA-best 25-15 to the over through their first 40 games.
- The under is 24-16 in games featuring Dallas entering Wednesday night.
Nuggets vs Mavericks Model Projection
Score Projection: Denver Nuggets 110 – Dallas Mavericks 113
Win Probability: Denver Nuggets 48%, Dallas Mavericks 52%
Final Thoughts
I'm expecting a close game between the Nuggets and Mavericks in this contest from Dallas. It's hard to have a ton of faith in either of these teams right now, given how many injuries both teams are dealing with. Still, I'll lay the points with the Mavs at home, as they should at least look a little bit more coherent offensively with the Nuggets missing arguably the best player in the world in Nikola Jokic.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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