The Denver Nuggets head to Atlanta to face the Atlanta Hawks on Friday night and all signs point to a high‑scoring affair. Denver has one of the most explosive offenses in the NBA this season, while Atlanta will need to put up some big numbers just to keep up with them. Below is my take on how it will play out, as I make my Nuggets vs Hawks prediction for Friday night.
Our Nuggets vs Hawks Pick
- Pick: Over 237.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Denver Nuggets @ Atlanta Hawks
- Date & Time: Friday, December 5, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia
- Broadcast: NBA League Pass
Key Storylines
- Denver enters this game on the back of Murray’s 52‑point explosion in a road win over Indiana. That night, Murray went 10‑for‑11 from three, while Nikola Jokic added 24 points and 13 assists to lead a dominant offensive output. Their road trip continues with this tilt in Atlanta.
- Denver’s offense is elite. They lead the league in scoring, averaging 125.1 points per game. Their field‑goal percentage (51.2%) ranks among the league’s best, and their three‑point shooting efficiency also gives them an edge over most opponents. That offensive strength matches up well against Atlanta’s defensive vulnerabilities.
- Atlanta is 13-10 this season, but roster concerns are still hanging over them. Even if their star wings produce, getting defensive stops against a balanced and efficient Denver offense could prove difficult. Not having Trae Young has been a big problem for the Hawks, while Jalen Johnson and Kristaps Porzingis are both questionable.
- Denver’s road performances have stood out this year. Away from home, they are 9-2 this season. Meanwhile, Atlanta has a 4-5 record on their home floor and they will need a special effort to get to the .500 mark at home on the year.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This is the first time these teams will meet this season.
- Against the spread, the Nuggets have been solid with a 13-8-0 record this season. They are 8-3-0 against the spread on the road.
- Atlanta is 12-11 against the spread on the season.
- Denver games have hit the over 14 of 21 times this season. The Hawks are 12-11 to the over on the year.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | Triple-double |
| Jamal Murray | Over 23.5 Points |
| Nickeil Alexander‑Walker | Over 19.5 Points |
Nuggets vs Hawks Model Projection
Score Projection: Denver 126 – Atlanta 117
Win Probability: Denver 64%, Atlanta 36%
Final Thoughts
My best bet for this contest is for the over to cash in Atlanta. The Nuggets are just rolling offensively of late and that should continue against an inconsistent Hawks defense. But Atlanta has plenty of weapons on offense themselves and they should do enough to help push this game over the total when all is said and done.
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