Cleveland Cavaliers vs Denver Nuggets NBA Prediction 1/6/23

Jay Sanin on January 7th, 2023

On Friday night, the Cleveland Cavaliers will take to the high altitude of Denver to take on the Nuggets at Ball Arena. Cleveland comes into this game banged up, but they will look to get the better of a Denver team on the second leg of a back to back nonetheless. In our NBA picks for Friday, we look at this Cavaliers vs Nuggets matchup.

Cavaliers vs Nuggets Betting Pick

ℹ️ The Pick:	Under 222
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This game will be played at Ball Arena at 9:00 PM ET on Friday, January 6, 2023.

Why Bet the Under:

✅ Cleveland is a mess from an injury perspective right now, and are likely to be without Donovan Mitchell for this game. Darius Garland is also questionable to play, which could mean a poor offensive showing.

✅ Denver is on the second night of a back to back tonight. While they may not rest their stars because of it, we should see some tired legs and a slower pace, especially at altitude.

✅ Cleveland has gone under the total in 53.9% of their games so far this season.

NBA

Jan 06, 2023 09:00 PM

Cleveland Cavaliers

Denver Nuggets

Spread Pick Consensus

+4.5/-105

-4.5/-115

34% CLE

DEN 66%

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+171

-206

16% CLE

DEN 84%

Total Pick Consensus

221.5/-110

221.5/-110

32% UN

OV 68%

Team Stats Per Game

Offense/Defense

CLE	Team Stats Per Game	DEN
14	Games	11
45.9	FG	43.5
88.2	FGA	92.9
.521	FG%	.468
15.7	3Pt-FG	13.7
37.6	3Pt-FGA	39.1
.418	3Pt%	.351
30.2	2Pt-FG	29.7
50.6	2Pt-FGA	53.8
.597	2Pt%	.552
15.8	FT	15.8
20.6	FTA	20.1
.767	FT%	.787
7.9	ORB	11.6
33.8	DRB	32.4
41.7	TRB	44.0
28.6	AST	29.8
9.8	STL	8.0
5.1	BLK	6.2
12.9	TOV	14.6
18.6	PF	22.4
123.4	PTS	116.5

Defense/Offense

CLE	Team Stats Per Game	DEN
14	Games	11
40.5	FG	42.5
87.4	FGA	90.0
.463	FG%	.472
13.6	3Pt-FG	12.5
36.0	3Pt-FGA	32.2
.377	3Pt%	.390
26.9	2Pt-FG	29.9
51.4	2Pt-FGA	57.8
.524	2Pt%	.517
16.6	FT	21.0
20.7	FTA	26.7
.803	FT%	.786
9.6	ORB	12.5
31.9	DRB	33.6
41.4	TRB	46.2
24.6	AST	30.3
7.0	STL	8.7
4.4	BLK	4.6
16.6	TOV	13.7
18.3	PF	18.8
111.2	PTS	118.5

Team Stats Per 100 Poss

Offense/Defense

CLE	Team Stats Per 100 Poss	DEN
14	Games	11
45.6	FG	43.0
87.5	FGA	91.9
.521	FG%	.468
15.6	3Pt-FG	13.6
37.3	3Pt-FGA	38.7
.418	3Pt%	.351
30.0	2Pt-FG	29.4
50.3	2Pt-FGA	53.2
.597	2Pt%	.552
15.7	FT	15.6
20.4	FTA	19.9
.767	FT%	.787
7.9	ORB	11.5
33.5	DRB	32.0
41.4	TRB	43.5
28.4	AST	29.5
9.7	STL	7.9
5.1	BLK	6.1
12.8	TOV	14.5
18.4	PF	22.1
122.4	PTS	115.2

Defense/Offense

CLE	Team Stats Per 100 Poss	DEN
14	Games	11
40.2	FG	42.0
86.8	FGA	89.0
.463	FG%	.472
13.5	3Pt-FG	12.4
35.7	3Pt-FGA	31.8
.377	3Pt%	.390
26.7	2Pt-FG	29.6
51.0	2Pt-FGA	57.2
.524	2Pt%	.517
16.5	FT	20.8
20.6	FTA	26.4
.803	FT%	.786
9.5	ORB	12.4
31.6	DRB	33.3
41.1	TRB	45.7
24.5	AST	29.9
6.9	STL	8.6
4.3	BLK	4.6
16.4	TOV	13.6
18.1	PF	18.6
110.4	PTS	117.2

Four Factors

Offense/Defense

CLE	Four Factors	DEN
.610	eFG%	.542
11.7	TOV%	12.6
19.9	RB%	74.3
.179	FT/FGA	.170

Defense/Offense

CLE	Four Factors	DEN
.541	eFG%	.541
14.7	TOV%	11.9
77.9	RB%	27.9
.190	FT/FGA	.233

Analytics

CLE	Analytics	DEN
11	Pythag Wins	6
3	Pythag Losses	5
12.14	Margin Of Victory	2.00
122.4	O Rtg	117.2
110.4	D Rtg	115.2
100.8	Pace	99.2
.233	FTr	.297
.426	3PAr	.358
.634	TS%	.582

Open

Current

Book

CLE

DEN

CLE

DEN

Consensus

+7.0 -109

-7.0 -113

+5.0 -109

-5.0 -113

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+5.5 -110

-5.5 -110

+5.5 -110

-5.5 -110

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Open

Current

Book

CLE

DEN

CLE

DEN

Consensus

+245

-315

+171

-206

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+185

-225

+175

-210

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Open

Current

Book

Over

Under

Over

Under

Consensus

229.5 -110

221.5 -110

221.5 -112

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228.5 -110

221.5 -110

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229.0 -110

221.5 -110

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$1,000 First Bet on Caesars

229.5 -110

221.5 -110

—-

229.5 -110

222.0 -110

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229.5 -110

221.5 -115

221.5 -105

Betting Trends

CLE	Betting Trends	DEN
OVERALL		OVERALL
3-0-0	Win/Loss/Tie	2-1-0
2-1-0	ATS W/L/P	2-1-0
112.67	Avg Score	118.67
108	Avg Opp Score	108.67
AWAY		HOME
2-1-0	Win/Loss/Tie	3-0-0
2-1-0	ATS W/L/P	3-0-0
111.33	Avg Score	123
109	Avg Opp Score	107

CLE	Betting Trends	DEN
OVERALL		OVERALL
3-2-0	Win/Loss/Tie	3-2-0
2-3-0	ATS W/L/P	4-1-0
116.2	Avg Score	121.2
116.8	Avg Opp Score	114.4
AWAY		HOME
2-3-0	Win/Loss/Tie	5-0-0
2-3-0	ATS W/L/P	4-1-0
105.2	Avg Score	123.4
106.2	Avg Opp Score	110.6

CLE	Betting Trends	DEN
OVERALL		OVERALL
7-3-0	Win/Loss/Tie	8-2-0
4-6-0	ATS W/L/P	7-3-0
114.2	Avg Score	119.1
111.8	Avg Opp Score	111.6
AWAY		HOME
3-7-0	Win/Loss/Tie	9-1-0
3-7-0	ATS W/L/P	6-4-0
101.7	Avg Score	121.2
106.1	Avg Opp Score	111.3

Head to Head

DATE	TM	LN	ML	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	OT	SC
03/18/22	DEN CLE	226.0 2.5	-140 +117	29 31	34 21	24 26	20 29	9 12	116 119
10/25/21	CLE DEN	220.5 -9.5	+369 -490	29 24	21 22	25 24	24 17		99 87
02/19/21	DEN CLE	226.0 9.0	-420 +320	33 23	36 27	26 30	25 23		120 103
02/10/21	CLE DEN	219.0 -9.5	+351 -458	17 34	26 30	23 36	29 33		95 133
03/07/20	DEN CLE	218.5 9.5	-500 +379	33 23	28 35	22 27	19 19		102 104
01/11/20	CLE DEN	217.0 -12.5	+645 -937	23 18	28 24	34 29	26 32		111 103
01/19/19	CLE DEN	219.5 -19.0	+1800 -2400	25 37	21 33	30 31	26 23		102 124
11/01/18	DEN CLE	218.5 4.5	-200 +185	15 27	35 15	33 24	27 25		110 91
03/07/18	CLE DEN	229.5 -3.5	+140 -150	38 23	32 35	19 29	24 21		113 108
03/03/18	DEN CLE	228.5 -4.5	+160 -170	37 31	36 31	30 35	23 20		126 117

Teams Last 10

DATE	TM	LN	ML	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	SC
11/15/24	CHI CLE	222.0 -9.3	+341 -440	32 46	36 26	27 28	22 34	117 134
11/13/24	CLE PHI	247.6 11.9	-671 +494	35 31	19 31	39 27	36 32	129 120
11/11/24	CLE CHI	252.6 9.7	-361 +294	36 37	35 33	30 28	26 22	127 120
11/09/24	BKN CLE	270.2 -15.4	+688 -990	34 42	33 28	33 16	22 43	123 129
11/08/24	GS CLE	117.5 -1.8	+69 -81	11 20	10 23	21 15	17 12	60 70
11/06/24	CLE NO	190.4 4.7	-220 +185	25 29	25 21	34 25	27 29	111 103
11/04/24	MIL CLE	209.1 -7.8	+256 -318	28 32	27 35	28 15	21 25	104 106
11/02/24	CLE MIL	164.3 -1.4	+78 -92	21 27	22 17	19 16	19 21	81 81
11/01/24	ORL CLE	324.1 -11.2	+358 -436	24 51	42 43	51 48	46 37	163 180
10/30/24	LAL CLE	152.7 -2.7	+98 -116	16 28	17 17	21 22	21 24	74 90

DATE	TM	LN	ML	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	SC
11/15/24	DEN NO	202.5 1.7	-128 +106	20 30	30 25	17 18	20 21	88 94
11/10/24	DAL DEN	65.7 -0.6	+32 -38	2 3	3 2	2 10	2 2	34 34
11/08/24	MIA DEN	113.4 -1.5	+65 -76	14 20	17 16	15 17	16 16	62 69
11/06/24	OKC DEN	190.4 5.0	-226 +187	27 25	29 21	25 34	23 25	103 105
11/04/24	TOR DEN	211.4 -10.1	+363 -481	34 31	25 23	27 27	24 30	109 111
11/02/24	UTA DEN	157.9 -7.8	+312 -419	19 26	21 20	14 24	20 21	73 92
11/01/24	DEN MIN	327.8 -5.2	+211 -249	43 49	48 46	36 40	46 42	174 178
10/26/24	LAC DEN	164.5 -5.6	+194 -239	20 14	16 17	17 22	29 25	82 78
10/24/24	OKC DEN	187.4 -1.6	+92 -109	25 20	22 22	22 14	14 16	84 71
10/17/24	DEN MIN	242.9 10.2	-327 +264	27 24	47 40	32 35	38 38	144 138

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Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cleveland Cavaliers come into this game off of a dramatic win over the Phoenix Suns at home. In a game where both teams failed to score 100 points, Cleveland did just enough down the stretch to get the win. Here, injury difficulties will make this game a tough one for the Cavs, though they have proven themselves capable of battling through those struggles.

Donovan Mitchell is set to miss this game for Cleveland, just a couple of games removed from his 71-point masterclass. Without him, the bigs of the Cavs are more important than ever, especially when tasked with guarding Nikola Jokic.

Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets are on the second night of a back to back in this game, but the first leg was a breeze for them. They blew out the Los Angeles Clippers, despite both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard being on the court for the Clippers in that game. Now the Nuggets will aim for a second straight win over a team with playoff aspirations in as many nights.

For the Nuggets, depth will be a key factor in this game against a depleted Cavaliers team. Their bench unit could make the difference here, as Bones Hyland leads a group of reserves more than capable of doing damage when they are playing well.