Cleveland Cavaliers vs Denver Nuggets NBA Prediction 1/6/23

Jay Sanin on January 7th, 2023

On Friday night, the Cleveland Cavaliers will take to the high altitude of Denver to take on the Nuggets at Ball Arena. Cleveland comes into this game banged up, but they will look to get the better of a Denver team on the second leg of a back to back nonetheless. In our NBA picks for Friday, we look at this Cavaliers vs Nuggets matchup.

Cavaliers vs Nuggets Betting Pick

ℹ️ The Pick:	Under 222
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This game will be played at Ball Arena at 9:00 PM ET on Friday, January 6, 2023.

Why Bet the Under:

✅ Cleveland is a mess from an injury perspective right now, and are likely to be without Donovan Mitchell for this game. Darius Garland is also questionable to play, which could mean a poor offensive showing.

✅ Denver is on the second night of a back to back tonight. While they may not rest their stars because of it, we should see some tired legs and a slower pace, especially at altitude.

✅ Cleveland has gone under the total in 53.9% of their games so far this season.

NBA

Jan 06, 2023 09:00 PM

Cleveland Cavaliers

Denver Nuggets

Spread Pick Consensus

+4.5/-105

-4.5/-115

34% CLE

DEN 66%

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+171

-206

16% CLE

DEN 84%

Total Pick Consensus

221.5/-110

221.5/-110

32% UN

OV 68%

Team Stats Per Game

Offense/Defense

CLE	Team Stats Per Game	DEN
27	Games	24
44.6	FG	43.5
88.4	FGA	93.1
.504	FG%	.468
15.6	3Pt-FG	13.9
39.0	3Pt-FGA	38.8
.399	3Pt%	.359
29.0	2Pt-FG	29.6
49.5	2Pt-FGA	54.3
.586	2Pt%	.545
16.8	FT	15.5
21.6	FTA	20.4
.779	FT%	.759
9.4	ORB	12.0
33.9	DRB	31.8
43.3	TRB	43.8
28.2	AST	29.5
9.1	STL	9.1
4.8	BLK	5.8
13.2	TOV	15.0
18.4	PF	21.2
121.5	PTS	116.5

Defense/Offense

CLE	Team Stats Per Game	DEN
27	Games	24
40.3	FG	44.3
88.6	FGA	89.5
.455	FG%	.494
13.6	3Pt-FG	11.5
36.7	3Pt-FGA	30.4
.371	3Pt%	.380
26.7	2Pt-FG	32.7
51.9	2Pt-FGA	59.1
.514	2Pt%	.553
16.6	FT	19.2
20.8	FTA	25.5
.800	FT%	.753
10.6	ORB	11.0
32.8	DRB	34.0
43.4	TRB	45.0
25.4	AST	30.8
7.5	STL	9.1
4.7	BLK	4.7
15.9	TOV	14.9
19.2	PF	18.4
110.9	PTS	119.2

Team Stats Per 100 Poss

Offense/Defense

CLE	Team Stats Per 100 Poss	DEN
27	Games	24
44.5	FG	42.6
88.3	FGA	91.0
.504	FG%	.468
15.5	3Pt-FG	13.6
38.9	3Pt-FGA	37.9
.399	3Pt%	.359
29.0	2Pt-FG	29.0
49.4	2Pt-FGA	53.1
.586	2Pt%	.545
16.8	FT	15.2
21.6	FTA	20.0
.779	FT%	.759
9.4	ORB	11.7
33.8	DRB	31.1
43.2	TRB	42.8
28.2	AST	28.9
9.1	STL	8.9
4.8	BLK	5.7
13.2	TOV	14.6
18.4	PF	20.7
121.3	PTS	113.9

Defense/Offense

CLE	Team Stats Per 100 Poss	DEN
27	Games	24
40.2	FG	43.3
88.5	FGA	87.5
.455	FG%	.494
13.6	3Pt-FG	11.3
36.7	3Pt-FGA	29.7
.371	3Pt%	.380
26.6	2Pt-FG	32.0
51.8	2Pt-FGA	57.8
.514	2Pt%	.553
16.6	FT	18.7
20.7	FTA	24.9
.800	FT%	.753
10.6	ORB	10.8
32.7	DRB	33.2
43.3	TRB	44.0
25.3	AST	30.1
7.5	STL	8.9
4.7	BLK	4.6
15.9	TOV	14.5
19.2	PF	18.0
110.7	PTS	116.5

Four Factors

Offense/Defense

CLE	Four Factors	DEN
.592	eFG%	.542
11.9	TOV%	12.8
22.3	RB%	74.0
.190	FT/FGA	.166

Defense/Offense

CLE	Four Factors	DEN
.532	eFG%	.559
14.0	TOV%	12.9
76.2	RB%	25.7
.188	FT/FGA	.214

Analytics

CLE	Analytics	DEN
21	Pythag Wins	14
6	Pythag Losses	10
10.63	Margin Of Victory	2.71
121.3	O Rtg	116.5
110.7	D Rtg	113.9
100.2	Pace	101.4
.244	FTr	.284
.441	3PAr	.339
.620	TS%	.592

Open

Current

Book

CLE

DEN

CLE

DEN

Consensus

+7.0 -109

-7.0 -113

+5.0 -109

-5.0 -113

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+5.5 -110

-5.5 -110

+5.5 -110

-5.5 -110

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Open

Current

Book

CLE

DEN

CLE

DEN

Consensus

+245

-315

+171

-206

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+185

-225

+175

-210

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Open

Current

Book

Over

Under

Over

Under

Consensus

229.5 -110

221.5 -110

221.5 -112

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228.5 -110

221.5 -110

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229.0 -110

221.5 -110

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229.5 -110

221.5 -110

—-

229.5 -110

222.0 -110

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229.5 -110

221.5 -115

221.5 -105

Betting Trends

CLE	Betting Trends	DEN
OVERALL		OVERALL
3-0-0	Win/Loss/Tie	2-1-0
2-1-0	ATS W/L/P	2-1-0
112.67	Avg Score	118.67
108	Avg Opp Score	108.67
AWAY		HOME
2-1-0	Win/Loss/Tie	3-0-0
2-1-0	ATS W/L/P	3-0-0
111.33	Avg Score	123
109	Avg Opp Score	107

CLE	Betting Trends	DEN
OVERALL		OVERALL
3-2-0	Win/Loss/Tie	3-2-0
2-3-0	ATS W/L/P	4-1-0
116.2	Avg Score	121.2
116.8	Avg Opp Score	114.4
AWAY		HOME
2-3-0	Win/Loss/Tie	5-0-0
2-3-0	ATS W/L/P	4-1-0
105.2	Avg Score	123.4
106.2	Avg Opp Score	110.6

CLE	Betting Trends	DEN
OVERALL		OVERALL
7-3-0	Win/Loss/Tie	8-2-0
4-6-0	ATS W/L/P	7-3-0
114.2	Avg Score	119.1
111.8	Avg Opp Score	111.6
AWAY		HOME
3-7-0	Win/Loss/Tie	9-1-0
3-7-0	ATS W/L/P	6-4-0
101.7	Avg Score	121.2
106.1	Avg Opp Score	111.3

Head to Head

DATE	TM	LN	ML	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	OT	SC
03/18/22	DEN CLE	226.0 2.5	-140 +117	29 31	34 21	24 26	20 29	9 12	116 119
10/25/21	CLE DEN	220.5 -9.5	+369 -490	29 24	21 22	25 24	24 17		99 87
02/19/21	DEN CLE	226.0 9.0	-420 +320	33 23	36 27	26 30	25 23		120 103
02/10/21	CLE DEN	219.0 -9.5	+351 -458	17 34	26 30	23 36	29 33		95 133
03/07/20	DEN CLE	218.5 9.5	-500 +379	33 23	28 35	22 27	19 19		102 104
01/11/20	CLE DEN	217.0 -12.5	+645 -937	23 18	28 24	34 29	26 32		111 103
01/19/19	CLE DEN	219.5 -19.0	+1800 -2400	25 37	21 33	30 31	26 23		102 124
11/01/18	DEN CLE	218.5 4.5	-200 +185	15 27	35 15	33 24	27 25		110 91
03/07/18	CLE DEN	229.5 -3.5	+140 -150	38 23	32 35	19 29	24 21		113 108
03/03/18	DEN CLE	228.5 -4.5	+160 -170	37 31	36 31	30 35	23 20		126 117

Teams Last 10

DATE	TM	LN	ML	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	SC
12/16/24	CLE BKN	107.8 2.6	-248 +190	18 4	18 12	16 18	13 12	65 50
12/13/24	WAS CLE	329.7 -23.4	+1451 -2711	35 35	41 45	37 43	35 40	149 163
12/08/24	CLE MIA	160.6 1.3	-102 +87	18 15	19 27	21 22	24 23	82 88
12/07/24	CLE CHA	255.4 15.8	-1047 +711	47 21	27 40	35 36	27 22	136 119
12/05/24	DEN CLE	256.8 -3.9	+161 -188	30 41	39 32	28 40	30 26	126 139
12/03/24	WAS CLE	305.8 -21.5	+1095 -1849	26 46	29 33	33 34	26 42	113 154
12/01/24	BOS CLE	283.7 -1.9	+125 -148	30 35	31 28	43 26	33 53	137 142
11/29/24	CLE ATL	425.4 16.8	-400 +330	47 51	40 40	40 68	49 45	176 204
11/27/24	ATL CLE	341.9 -12.7	+444 -556	49 49	37 41	52 44	52 41	190 175
11/24/24	TOR CLE	130.5 -6.4	+283 -392	12 21	18 15	20 17	10 15	60 68

DATE	TM	LN	ML	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	SC
12/16/24	DEN SAC	118.8 -0.8	-50 -58	20 10	17 24	10 18	17 13	65 64
12/13/24	LAC DEN	322.6 -10.6	+328 -397	31 41	35 27	31 50	41 52	139 170
12/08/24	DEN ATL	173.6 -1.1	-75 -82	27 17	24 18	25 26	25 19	102 80
12/07/24	DEN WAS	274.1 14.0	-853 +603	34 42	33 39	42 35	23 27	132 143
12/05/24	DEN CLE	256.8 -3.9	+161 -188	30 41	39 32	28 40	30 26	126 139
12/03/24	GS DEN	308.4 -6.5	+210 -249	40 43	34 31	37 43	39 38	150 155
12/01/24	DEN LAC	279.3 4.6	-189 +161	28 40	44 33	38 41	40 42	151 156
11/27/24	DEN UTA	322.2 14.8	-709 +537	48 49	41 25	52 32	31 38	172 145
11/25/24	NY DEN	315.6 -2.7	+148 -175	48 32	54 39	50 46	43 42	195 158
11/23/24	DEN LAL	363.8 -5.4	+222 -263	48 42	40 56	57 23	51 37	196 158

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Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cleveland Cavaliers come into this game off of a dramatic win over the Phoenix Suns at home. In a game where both teams failed to score 100 points, Cleveland did just enough down the stretch to get the win. Here, injury difficulties will make this game a tough one for the Cavs, though they have proven themselves capable of battling through those struggles.

Donovan Mitchell is set to miss this game for Cleveland, just a couple of games removed from his 71-point masterclass. Without him, the bigs of the Cavs are more important than ever, especially when tasked with guarding Nikola Jokic.

Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets are on the second night of a back to back in this game, but the first leg was a breeze for them. They blew out the Los Angeles Clippers, despite both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard being on the court for the Clippers in that game. Now the Nuggets will aim for a second straight win over a team with playoff aspirations in as many nights.

For the Nuggets, depth will be a key factor in this game against a depleted Cavaliers team. Their bench unit could make the difference here, as Bones Hyland leads a group of reserves more than capable of doing damage when they are playing well.