Xiao Long vs Francesco Nuzzi Prediction & Preview - 8/29/2026
Updated August 28, 2026
Updated August 28, 2026
Xiao Long and Francesco Nuzzi meet in a bantamweight preliminary bout at UFC Shanghai on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Long brings considerably more professional and UFC experience, while Nuzzi enters his promotional debut as a dangerous finisher who accepted the matchup on short notice. DraftKings Sportsbook currently prices Long at -180 and Nuzzi at +150.
Fighter | Age | Height | Reach | Stance | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Xiao Long | 28 | 5’8” | 70” | Orthodox | 27-11 |
Francesco Nuzzi | 29 | 5’3” | 69” | Southpaw | 11-2, 2 NC |
Long arrives with consecutive unanimous-decision defeats against SuYoung You and Cody Garbrandt, but those results require a closer look. You controlled portions of their fight with cleaner grappling and more accurate striking, yet Long remained active from start to finish. He attempted 214 significant strikes and landed 68, showing that his volume does not disappear when a fight becomes difficult.
The Garbrandt loss was even less straightforward. Long was penalized 2 points for repeated low blows in the third round and lost 28-27 on all 3 scorecards. The fouls were costly and cannot be ignored, but the scoring indicates that Long was competitive enough to win without the deductions. Treating that performance as an ordinary clear defeat would underrate what he produced during the legal portions of the contest.
Nuzzi is far from a passive newcomer. The Italian southpaw has recorded 5 knockouts, 3 submissions and 3 decisions among his 11 victories. Eight of those wins came in the opening round. His offense includes a sharp straight left, body punches, kicks, and powerful knees at close range.
His latest appearance, against Manoel Costa in April 2026, ended in a no contest after an accidental foul left him unable to continue. Before that, Nuzzi had recovered from a submission defeat to Mando Gutierrez by producing a first-round finish against Lucas Rodrigues.
Long owns a huge height advantage going into this fight. More importantly, he has completed many competitive 3-round fights and has already shared the cage with experienced UFC opponents. His 38 professional bouts represent more than twice Nuzzi’s 15 recorded outcomes, including the 2 no contests.
Nuzzi’s power makes him dangerous, and his southpaw counters are the main reason this prediction does not carry a higher confidence rating. As we get deeper into the fight, Long should begin taking over through activity, physical size, and experience.
My pick for this fight is Xiao Long by decision. A finish is possible if Nuzzi fades, but Long’s most reliable route is to force repeated exchanges, mix in occasional takedown attempts, and win minutes with volume. At DraftKings’ current -180 price, Long carries a 64.3% implied probability against a 68% model projection. The resulting 3.7% edge makes him playable through -190.
