Updated August 20, 2026
Carli Judice and Jeisla Chaves meet Saturday, August 22 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento in a women's flyweight bout that has a surprisingly wide gap in terms of the odds. Judice enters with a 6-2 record and 5 knockout wins, while Chaves remains unbeaten at 8-0 after earning a split-decision victory over Yuneisy Duben in her UFC debut. The current market has Judice around -575 and Chaves around +425, with Chaves a substantial underdog to remain undefeated in her pro MMA career.
The raw betting numbers make Chaves the clear value side. At +425, the implied probability is only 19.1%, meaning the market is effectively saying she wins roughly 1 out of every 5 times. That is difficult to reconcile with an 8-0 fighter who has already shown she can compete at a high level over 15 minutes.
That does not mean Judice is being underestimated as a fighter. She is the more proven UFC commodity and has demonstrated considerably more finishing ability. The question is whether that difference is large enough to justify making Chaves such a massive underdog.
Statistic | Carli Judice | Jeisla Chaves |
|---|---|---|
Age | 27 | 29 |
Height | 5'7" | 5'6" |
Reach | 68" | 68" |
Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
Record | 6-2 | 8-0 |
Judice's recent run is the biggest reason she has attracted such a strong market price. She stopped Yuneisy Duben by head kick and punches in the 1st round in March 2025, then finished Nicolle Caliari with a knee and punches in the 3rd round at UFC 318. Most recently, she defeated former Ultimate Fighter winner Juliana Miller by unanimous decision in February 2026.
There is a clear statistical pattern behind Judice's success. She lands 9.32 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 6.62, and she owns a 57% significant-strike defense rate. Her UFC numbers also show 81% takedown defense, although she has attempted relatively little offensive wrestling herself. Her 0.52 takedowns per 15 minutes suggest that her preferred route is to keep the fight standing and create opportunities with her striking.
Chaves has been much less explosive in the UFC, but she has been difficult to hit cleanly. She has landed 4.97 significant strikes per minute at 56% accuracy while absorbing 4.20 per minute. Her significant-strike defense sits at 54%, while her takedown defense is 63%. She has also shown some offensive grappling, landing 3 of 8 UFC takedown attempts and averaging 0.50 submissions per 15 minutes.
In her UFC debut, Chaves landed 64 of 99 significant strikes compared with 62 of 112 for Duben and went 3-for-6 on takedowns. She also controlled 4:29 of the fight. The bout went the full 15 minutes, and Chaves earned a split decision.
The matchup therefore comes down to Judice's power against Chaves' ability to manage distance and stay competitive over 15 minutes. Judice has the better finishing résumé, and if Judice consistently gets her left hand and head kick into range, the underdog's price could quickly become irrelevant.
But Chaves has several things working in her favor. The fighters are effectively even in reach despite Judice holding a 1-inch height advantage, and Chaves has already demonstrated strong defensive numbers in her limited UFC sample. More importantly, she has shown that she can win rounds through volume and positioning rather than relying on a single fight-changing moment.
Judice has the clearest path to a finish, but that does not necessarily make her the better bet. Chaves has never lost a professional fight, has 4 decision victories on her résumé, and has demonstrated that she can remain effective late. Her 8-0 record includes 4 knockout victories, so the idea that she must survive 15 minutes to win is also too simplistic.
At +425, Chaves needs to win only slightly more than 1 in 5 times to justify a wager. Even allowing for the uncertainty surrounding Chaves' relatively small UFC sample, there is enough evidence to take the underdog.