Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction – 5/4/2025

Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Washington Nationals on May 4, 2025, in what promises to be a compelling matchup. The Reds, sitting at 18-16, have had an above-average season, while the Nationals struggle at 15-19, marking them as one of the weaker clubs this year. Both teams are looking to gain traction with a win in this contest.

The Reds will send Nick Martinez to the mound, who has had a mixed season with a 1-3 record and an average ERA of 4.68. Martinez's 4.07 FIP suggests he may be due for a turnaround, particularly against a Nationals lineup that ranks just 18th in MLB offensive performance.

On the other side, MacKenzie Gore, projected to start for Washington, has shown promise this season with a better 3.51 ERA and a Power Ranking of 53rd among MLB starters. Despite his solid performance, he does have a tendency to allow 2.2 walks on average, which could be detrimental against a Reds offense ranked 10th overall, showcasing their ability to capitalize on mistakes.

Betting markets currently favor the Reds with a moneyline of -120, implying a projected total of 4.35 runs for them, while the Nationals are set at +100 with an implied total of 4.15 runs. With the Reds boasting the superior offense and a bullpen ranked 16th, compared to the Nationals’ struggling 25th, Cincinnati looks to solidify its position in the NL Central standings with a win in this matchup.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore's fastball velocity has decreased 1.1 mph this year (94.8 mph) below where it was last season (95.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

This season, James Wood has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98.9 mph compared to last year's 96.6 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Martinez is an extreme flyball pitcher (34% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue among all parks in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Extreme groundball hitters like Elly De La Cruz usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like MacKenzie Gore.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jose Trevino, the Reds's expected catcher in today's game, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.30 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 25 games (+2.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jose Tena has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 away games (+5.40 Units / 85% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.65, Cincinnati Reds 4.44

• Date: May 4, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
  • Nick Martinez - Reds

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