Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins Pick For 4/26/2024

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Overview

• Date: April 26, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals
  • Jesus Luzardo - Marlins
• Run Line: Nationals 1.5 -145, Marlins -1.5 125
• Money Line: Nationals 145, Marlins -165
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Washington Nationals - 40%
• Miami Marlins - 60%

Projected Win %:

• Washington Nationals - 34.57%
• Miami Marlins - 65.43%

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League East matchup on April 26, 2024, the Miami Marlins will take on the Washington Nationals at LoanDepot Park. The Marlins, with a record of 6-20, are having a tough season, while the Nationals are not faring much better with a 10-14 record.

On the mound for the Marlins is left-handed pitcher Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo has started five games this year but is yet to secure a win with a record of 0-2. His ERA stands at 6.58, which is considered poor. However, his xFIP of 4.31 suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better moving forward.

Opposing Luzardo is right-handed pitcher Trevor Williams for the Nationals. Williams has started four games this year and has a perfect 2-0 record with an impressive 2.91 ERA. However, his 3.71 xFIP indicates that he may have benefited from some luck and could regress in future outings.

The Marlins offense ranks as the 29th best in MLB, indicating a lack of production this season. However, they have shown strength in team batting average, ranking third in the league. The Nationals offense, on the other hand, ranks 20th overall, with their team batting average ranking sixth.

Considering the projections, Luzardo is expected to pitch around six innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs and striking out 5.1 batters. However, he may struggle with allowing 5.6 hits and 1.5 walks on average. Williams, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs and striking out 3.7 batters, but may struggle with giving up 5.9 hits and 1.4 walks.

In terms of betting odds, the Marlins are the favorites with a moneyline of -165, implying a 60% chance of winning. The Nationals are the underdogs with a moneyline of +145 and a 40% chance of winning.

Overall, the Marlins have a higher implied team total of 4.74 runs compared to the Nationals' 3.76 runs based on the current odds. This suggests that the Marlins are expected to have a more productive offensive outing.

With Luzardo's advantage against a Nationals offense with limited power and the Marlins' higher implied team total, the Marlins may have the edge in this game. However, it's important to note that baseball is unpredictable, and anything can happen on any given day.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Among all SPs, Trevor Williams's fastball velocity of 88.7 mph ranks in the 2nd percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jacob Young's speed has dropped off this season. His 30 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.4 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Today, Keibert Ruiz is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.2% rate (96th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Tallying 93.2 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Jesus Luzardo places in the 78th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Nick Gordon has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .186 BA is a good deal lower than his .247 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 57 games at home (+6.35 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 75 games (+17.25 Units / 22% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.55 Units / 34% ROI)

Nationals vs Marlins Prediction: Nationals 3.75 - Marlins 4.97

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