Washington Nationals at Cleveland Guardians Pick For 6/1/2024

Washington Nationals vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 1, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals
  • Ben Lively - Guardians

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

In an exciting Interleague matchup, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Washington Nationals at Progressive Field on June 1, 2024. The Guardians, who boast an impressive record of 38-19 this season, are having a great campaign thus far. On the other hand, the Nationals have had a below-average season with a record of 26-30.

The Guardians are set to start right-handed pitcher Ben Lively, who has been solid on the mound this season. Lively has started eight games, boasting a record of 4-2 and an excellent ERA of 2.80. However, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Lively is considered one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB, ranked at #277 out of approximately 350 pitchers. His 4.11 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this year and could potentially perform worse going forward.

Mitchell Parker, a left-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Nationals. While Parker has a record of 4-2 and a respectable ERA of 3.45, our Power Rankings indicate that he is not performing well by MLB standards.

The Guardians offense is ranked as the 10th best in MLB this season, highlighting their strong performance at the plate. However, their power-hitting game has been lacking, as they rank 30th in team home runs. In contrast, the Nationals offense ranks 23rd in MLB, with their best hitter being Nick Senzel.

Looking at the pitching matchup, Lively's high flyball rate may work to his advantage against the Nationals' weak power-hitting lineup, as they rank second to last in home runs. On the other hand, Parker's high groundball rate could benefit the Guardians, who have struggled with their power hitting.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Guardians have the second-best bullpen according to our Power Rankings, while the Nationals rank 26th. This could potentially give the Guardians an edge in the later innings.

As for the betting odds, the Guardians are the favorites with a current moneyline of -155, giving them an implied win probability of 59%. The Nationals, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +135, with an implied win probability of 41%. Based on the odds, the Guardians have a higher implied team total of 4.66 runs compared to the Nationals' 3.84 runs.

With the Guardians having a strong season and the Nationals struggling, this game presents an intriguing matchup. Will Ben Lively's solid performance continue, or will the Nationals find a way to overcome their offensive struggles? Baseball fans and bettors alike will be eagerly watching this game to find out.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mitchell Parker has a large reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 6 opposite-handed batters in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Joey Gallo has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (55% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Cleveland Guardians infield defense grades out as the best among all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Josh Naylor is apt to have an advantage against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 49 games (+11.52 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 47 games (+12.40 Units / 21% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+9.90 Units / 55% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.61 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.84

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