Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland Athletics Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/9/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: June 9, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays
  • Mitch Spence - Athletics

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

The Oakland Athletics host the Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Coliseum on June 9, 2024, in the third game of their series. The Athletics, currently 26-40, are struggling through a tough season, while the Blue Jays, at 31-33, are having a below-average year. In their last matchup on June 8, the Blue Jays dominated with a 7-0 shutout victory.

Oakland's Mitch Spence, a right-hander, is slated to start. Spence has a respectable 3.86 ERA, but his 3.23 xERA suggests he's been unlucky and could perform better going forward. Despite ranking 188th among MLB starting pitchers, Spence's 52% groundball rate could play well against a Blue Jays offense that ranks 25th in home runs with just 54 on the season. Spence's projections indicate he is likely to allow 2.8 earned runs over 5.4 innings, with 3.5 strikeouts and 1.5 walks.

On the mound for Toronto is Bowden Francis, also a right-hander, who has struggled mightily with a 9.00 ERA. However, his 4.02 xFIP points to some bad luck, indicating he might improve. Francis is projected to pitch 4.3 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs, with 4.3 strikeouts and 1.2 walks.

Offensively, the Athletics have been one of the weakest teams this season, ranking 28th overall and 29th in team batting average. However, they do have some power, ranking 5th in home runs. Brent Rooker stands out with a .272 batting average, 12 home runs, and 39 RBIs.

Toronto's offense is more balanced, ranking 19th overall and 18th in batting average. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been their best hitter, boasting a .294 batting average and .815 OPS. Over the last week, Guerrero has been on a tear, hitting .308 with 2 home runs and 5 RBIs.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Blue Jays have a slight edge with a 53% win probability. Betting markets align closely, giving Toronto an implied win probability of 53% with a moneyline of -125. The Athletics’ moneyline sits at +105, reflecting a 47% implied win probability. With both teams having their struggles, this game could be closer than expected, but the Blue Jays' recent form and overall offensive edge might just tip the scales in their favor.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Over his previous 3 starts, Bowden Francis has produced a significant spike in his fastball spin rate: from 2393 rpm over the entire season to 2460 rpm recently.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

George Springer is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup in today's games is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 20.7% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mitch Spence is expected to average a total of 16.2 outs in this matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

This year, there has been a decline in Miguel Andujar's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.63 ft/sec last year to 25.54 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics' bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 63 games (+6.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 33 away games (+5.60 Units / 15% ROI)
• Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+8.55 Units / 59% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.63 vs Oakland Athletics 4.11

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