Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Game 1 Pick – 4/27/2025

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Game 1 Preview

On April 27, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium in the first game of a double-header. The Yankees are currently in a strong position with a record of 15-11, while the Blue Jays sit at 13-13. The Yankees are having a great season, ranking 2nd in MLB in offensive performance, and they will look to recover from a loss in their most recent game with a victory in the opener of today's twin-bill.

Max Fried, projected to start for the Yankees, boasts an impressive 4-0 record this year along with a stellar ERA of 1.42, making him the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Fried’s high groundball rate (50 GB%) complements the Blue Jays' struggles with power, as they rank 29th in home runs this season. This matchup appears favorable for Fried, as the Blue Jays' lack of offensive pop may be neutralized by his ability to induce ground balls.

On the other side, Kevin Gausman will take the mound for Toronto. While Gausman has a solid ERA of 3.16, he is considered a below-average pitcher in the advanced statistics. He faces a daunting challenge against a Yankees lineup that leads MLB with 41 home runs this season. Gausman’s tendency to allow fly balls (45 FB%) could spell trouble, especially against a power-heavy offense like the Yankees'.

With the Yankees being a significant betting favorite with a moneyline of -180, their projected team total of 4.82 runs indicates confidence in their ability to capitalize on Gausman’s vulnerabilities. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting an expectation of a competitive matchup. As these two teams clash, the Yankees will look to leverage their offensive strength against a struggling Blue Jays lineup.

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Game 1 Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.02, New York Yankees 4.82

• Date: April 27, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays
  • Max Fried - Yankees

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