Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Pick – 4/25/2025

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

On April 25, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium for the first game of a series. The Yankees currently hold a record of 15-10, putting them in a solid position in the American League East, while the Blue Jays sit at 12-13, struggling to find consistency this season. The Yankees are coming off a strong performance, showcasing their offensive capabilities, which rank as the 2nd best in MLB.

The matchup on the mound features Carlos Carrasco for the Yankees, who has a Win/Loss record of 2-1 this year but carries a concerning ERA of 6.53. Despite this, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as his xFIP stands at 4.69, indicating potential for improvement. Carrasco's low strikeout rate (16.7 K%) could be a factor against a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 3rd in the league for fewest strikeouts.

On the other side, Toronto's Jose Berrios will take the hill. With a 1-1 record and an ERA of 5.02, Berrios has also struggled this season, and his xFIP of 4.33 indicates he might be similarly poised for better results. However, his strikeout rate of 19.8 K% could be tested against a Yankees lineup that has displayed a high strikeout tendency, ranking 3rd in MLB.

Offensively, the Yankees lead the league in home runs, while the Blue Jays are languishing at 29th in that category. This disparity could play a crucial role in the game, particularly with the Yankees projected to score nearly 5 runs. As betting markets suggest a close contest, the Yankees' strong offensive production and the potential for Carrasco to bounce back could give them a notable edge in this matchup.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios has added a slider to his repertoire this year and has thrown it 25.9% of the time.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Bo Bichette has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the last 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays' bullpen profiles as the 6th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Over his previous 3 outings, Carlos Carrasco has seen a notable decrease in his fastball spin rate: from 2186 rpm over the whole season to 2087 rpm lately.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Ben Rice has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95.5-mph average to last season's 90-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Today, Aaron Judge is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.1% rate (89th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.65 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+6.45 Units / 50% ROI)
• Anthony Volpe has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games at home (+10.00 Units / 111% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 5.09, New York Yankees 5.26

• Date: April 25, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays
  • Carlos Carrasco - Yankees

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.