Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction – 5/7/2025

The May 7, 2025 matchup features the Los Angeles Angels hosting the Toronto Blue Jays at Angel Stadium, and both teams find themselves underwhelming this season. The Angels currently sit at 14-20, while the Blue Jays hold a record of 16-19. In their last encounter, the Angels got the better of the Blue Jays, adding to their struggles.

On the mound, Yusei Kikuchi is projected to start for the Angels. Despite his average ERA of 4.21, his underlying metrics suggest he may be due for regression, as indicated by a 4.71 xFIP that is notably higher than his ERA. Kikuchi has not found success this season, holding a 0-4 record over seven starts. He faces a Blue Jays offense, ranked 30th in MLB with just 25 home runs, which might struggle against his flyball tendencies.

Jose Berrios takes the mound for the Blue Jays, sporting a more respectable ERA of 3.98. While his performance has been solid, he is still considered below average by many metrics. Berrios has a 1-1 record with seven starts and will need to navigate a struggling Angels lineup, ranked 27th overall in MLB offensive production.

Betting lines put the Angels at +100 with an implied win probability of 48%, while the Blue Jays are at -120 with a 52% probability. Given the projections, the Angels' offense, despite its low ranking, could find an opportunity against Berrios, who has been inconsistent. This game is crucial for both teams as they look to gain momentum in a tight series. With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, bettors should prepare for a closely contested matchup.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.1% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Angel Stadium — the #7 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Andres Gimenez is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ranks as the 6th-best hitter in MLB.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Yusei Kikuchi has used his secondary pitches 7.4% more often this year (60.5%) than he did last year (53.1%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Zach Neto has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.5-mph average to last season's 94.5-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Los Angeles Angels have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyren Paris, Logan O'Hoppe, Jorge Soler).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games (+8.85 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 7 away games (+7.35 Units / 89% ROI)
• Anthony Santander has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+6.35 Units / 19% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.77, Los Angeles Angels 4.4

• Date: May 7, 2025
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Angels

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