Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 4/8/2025

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

On April 8, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park for the second game of their series. Both teams enter this matchup with a 6-5 record, indicating above-average starts to the season. The Red Sox currently rank 5th in MLB for their offense, while the Blue Jays sit at 25th, highlighting a significant disparity in offensive potency.

The Red Sox are projected to start Garrett Crochet, who has emerged as one of the elite pitchers in the league, currently ranked 3rd in MLB Power Rankings. With an impressive ERA of 1.38 and a solid Win/Loss record of 1-0 in just two starts this season, Crochet is expected to pitch about 5.5 innings today, allowing an average of only 1.9 earned runs. Despite some concerns regarding his high hit rate, facing a Blue Jays lineup with minimal power (only 5 home runs this season, ranking 2nd least in MLB) gives him a favorable matchup.

On the other hand, Easton Lucas, who is projected to start for the Blue Jays, has had a solid start with a 0.00 ERA but has only pitched one game. His 4.21 xFIP suggests he may not be able to sustain this success. Lucas's low strikeout rate (16.7 K%) could be a liability against a Red Sox offense that ranks 3rd in strikeouts.

The Game Total for this matchup is set at 8.0 runs, which is average. With Boston favored at -185 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 4.57 runs, they appear well-positioned to take control of this series.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The Boston Red Sox have 7 batters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Easton Lucas today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

This year, Anthony Santander's Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 11.7% last year to just 4% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Toronto Blue Jays bats collectively grade out 25th- in baseball for power since the start of last season when using their 7.3% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Garrett Crochet's 97-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 96th percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In comparison to his 89-mph average last year, Alex Bregman's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 96.3 mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 8 away games (+4.20 Units / 52% ROI)

• Date: April 8, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Easton Lucas - Blue Jays
  • Garrett Crochet - Red Sox

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