Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 4/10/2025

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park on April 10, 2025, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup in the American League East. The Red Sox currently sit at 6-7, struggling to find their rhythm this season, while the Blue Jays are enjoying a strong start at 8-5. Both teams are coming off a closely contested game yesterday, with the Red Sox losing to the Blue Jays by a score of 2-1.

In this pivotal fourth game of the series, the Red Sox are projected to start Walker Buehler, who has provided inconsistent performances this year, marked by an alarming ERA of 8.68. Despite holding the #169 rank among MLB pitchers, advanced statistics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as indicated by his xFIP of 3.80. Buehler faces a Blue Jays lineup that, while lacking power with just 6 home runs (the 2nd least in MLB), has a chance to capitalize on his groundball tendencies.

On the other side, Chris Bassitt, a right-handed pitcher for the Blue Jays, has been exceptional, boasting an impressive ERA of 0.71. With a solid strikeout rate of 31.4% and facing a Red Sox offense that leads the league in strikeouts, Bassitt may have the upper hand. The projections hint that Bassitt could continue his strong form against a Red Sox team that struggles to make consistent contact.

The Red Sox's offense ranks 8th overall in MLB, with a commendable 4th ranking in team batting average. However, they will need to overcome Bassitt's skill set to make a mark in this matchup. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays' offense, currently ranked 11th, will look to get past Buehler early in the game.

With a game total currently set at 9.0 runs, betting markets indicate a close contest ahead. The Red Sox's moneyline of -115 suggests confidence in their ability to bounce back from recent struggles, while the Blue Jays sit at -105. This game could be a turning point for Boston as they seek to regain momentum against a division rival.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Among every team in action today, the 3rd-best infield defense belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Alejandro Kirk is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 3rd-best projected lineup of the day in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the Toronto Blue Jays.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Considering that groundball pitchers have a substantial advantage over groundball bats, Walker Buehler and his 45.3% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good spot in today's outing facing 2 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Rafael Devers has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 96.3-mph average to last year's 93.1-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen profiles as the 9th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.25 Units / 62% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Total Bases Under in 5 of his last 8 games (+1.55 Units / 16% ROI)

• Date: April 10, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays
  • Walker Buehler - Red Sox

Get daily MLB picks here.