Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 4/9/2025

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

On April 9, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park in an American League East matchup. Both teams are currently hovering around .500, with the Red Sox sitting at 6-6 and the Blue Jays at 7-5. This game marks the third in the series, and after a close contest yesterday, the Red Sox will look to build momentum against a rival they often face in tight games.

The Red Sox will send Tanner Houck to the mound, who has had a rocky start to the season with an 0-1 record and a troubling ERA of 6.52. Despite his struggles, advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky, as his 5.19 xFIP indicates potential for improvement. Houck projects to pitch an average of 6.0 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs, but he will need to address his high hit and walk projections to keep the Blue Jays at bay.

On the other side, Kevin Gausman will take the hill for Toronto. With a 1-1 record and a solid ERA of 3.97, Gausman has shown he can perform well, though projections indicate he may have been a bit fortunate this season. He is expected to pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, which could be a challenge against a Red Sox offense that ranks 6th overall in MLB.

The Red Sox's offensive prowess, particularly their high ranking in batting average and runs scored, gives them a slight edge, especially as they face a Blue Jays lineup that has struggled with power, ranking 29th in home runs. With a moneyline of -125, Boston is favored, reflecting confidence in their ability to capitalize on their strengths and exploit Toronto's weaknesses. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive matchup ahead.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Considering that groundball batters perform worse against groundball pitchers, Kevin Gausman (36.7% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 3 GB hitters in the opposing team's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Anthony Santander is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Boston (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 16.7% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Tanner Houck has gone to his non-fastballs 6.2% less often this season (61.4%) than he did last year (67.6%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Jarren Duran's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 47.5% to 55.2%.

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen profiles as the 9th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.15 Units / 34% ROI)
• George Springer has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+12.50 Units / 250% ROI)

• Date: April 9, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox

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