Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants Pick – 4/25/2025

Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the Texas Rangers on April 25, 2025, both teams are looking to build on solid seasons. The Giants hold a record of 17-9, showcasing a strong start, while the Rangers sit at 14-11, also above .500. The Giants find themselves at the center of attention with a top-tier bullpen ranked 4th in MLB, which could play a crucial role in tight games.

The Giants' Justin Verlander will get the start in this contest. So far this year, he has struggled, recording a 5.47 ERA this season, but advanced stats suggest he may have been unlucky, as his xFIP is significantly lower at 4.37. He'll face off against the Rangers' Nathan Eovaldi, who has been stellar with a 2.64 ERA, but projections hint he might regress. Eovaldi has been effective at limiting walks, which could challenge the Giants' high-walk offense.

The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting the expectations of a close matchup. With the Giants holding a slight edge in the moneyline at -115, they may have the advantage in this interleague contest, especially with their strong bullpen and the projections suggesting a potential uptick in Verlander's performance. This matchup could be pivotal in setting the tone for the series ahead.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Nathan Eovaldi has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 7.7% more often this season (70.4%) than he did last year (62.7%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Josh Smith has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (59% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Texas Rangers bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Justin Verlander's 2431-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 86th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Matt Chapman has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.3-mph to 102.8-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Mike Yastrzemski pulls many of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.40 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.00 Units / 22% ROI)
• Tyler Fitzgerald has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 10 games (+6.50 Units / 65% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.26, San Francisco Giants 4.63

• Date: April 25, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers
  • Justin Verlander - Giants

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