Texas Rangers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – 4/9/2025

Texas Rangers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs host the Texas Rangers on April 9, 2025, both teams enter the matchup with solid records, with the Cubs sitting at 9-5 and the Rangers at 8-4. This game marks the third in a competitive series, and the Cubs are riding high after defeating the Rangers 10-6 in their previous encounter. The stakes are high in this interleague battle, as both teams are looking to solidify their early-season success.

Cubs' pitcher Shota Imanaga is projected to start, boasting an impressive 2-0 record and a stellar ERA of 0.98. His recent form has been strong, highlighted by a solid performance in his last outing, where he pitched 7 innings, allowing just 1 earned run. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit lucky this season, as his xFIP of 4.98 indicates a potential regression. Nevertheless, Imanaga is expected to pitch 6.1 innings today, allowing approximately 2.3 earned runs, and his ability to strike out 6.2 batters per game adds to his allure.

On the other side, Tyler Mahle is set to take the mound for the Rangers. With a 1-0 record and an ERA of 1.35, he has also performed well, though his projected innings of 5.2 and a concerning walk rate of 20.7% could be problematic against a patient Cubs lineup that ranks 1st in MLB for walks drawn. Mahle's high-flyball tendencies could be exploited by the Cubs' power, especially since they rank 4th in home runs this season.

With the Cubs favored at -150 and an implied team total of 4.35 runs, they look to capitalize on their strong offense against a struggling Rangers lineup that ranks 30th in overall performance. The projections indicate that the Cubs should maintain their winning momentum, making this matchup one to watch closely.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Tyler Mahle has relied on his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 54.4% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Extreme flyball bats like Kyle Higashioka tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Kyle Higashioka pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Out of all starters, Shota Imanaga's fastball spin rate of 2498 rpm is in the 92nd percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 8% rate last year has dropped to 0% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The underlying talent of the Chicago Cubs projected offense today (.329 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly weaker than their .345 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 41 games at home (+13.85 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 20 games (+1.15 Units / 5% ROI)
• Michael Busch has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+9.05 Units / 44% ROI)

• Date: April 9, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Mahle - Rangers
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs

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