Texas Rangers vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 4/7/2025

Texas Rangers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

On April 7, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will welcome the Texas Rangers to Wrigley Field for the first game of their interleague series. Both teams are enjoying strong starts to the season, with the Cubs holding a record of 7-5 and the Rangers at 8-2. The Rangers are coming off a strong performance, having secured a win in their previous outing, while the Cubs are looking to maintain their momentum.

Justin Steele is set to take the mound for the Cubs. Although he has a Win/Loss record of 2-1 this season, his ERA of 6.89 raises concerns. However, his 3.77 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and may improve going forward. Steele’s projection of 6.2 innings with an average of 1.8 earned runs allowed indicates he could be poised for a better outing. On the other hand, Nathan Eovaldi is projected to start for the Rangers, boasting a remarkable 1.20 ERA and a solid Win/Loss record of 1-0. Eovaldi is a high-strikeout pitcher facing a Cubs offense that ranks 1st in MLB for strikeouts, which could give him an edge.

Despite the Cubs' offensive struggles with a batting average ranking of 21st, they excel in home runs and rank 5th in the league in that category. Their ability to hit for power could pose a challenge for Eovaldi. The projections indicate a low-scoring affair, with a Game Total of just 6.0 runs, suggesting that runs will be at a premium.

With the Cubs' implied team total set at a mere 3.14 runs and the Rangers at 2.86, betting markets expect a tightly contested matchup. However, the Cubs' offensive potential, especially at home, could give them the advantage in this intriguing early-season clash.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Nathan Eovaldi has been granted more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 4.5 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Wyatt Langford's launch angle this year (23.8°) is quite a bit higher than his 16.2° figure last year.

• A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Kyle Higashioka pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Justin Steele has utilized his four-seamer 6.9% less often this year (52.7%) than he did last year (59.6%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Ian Happ's average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 90.8-mph figure last year has dropped off to 84.9-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be smart to expect better numbers for the Chicago Cubs offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 8th-unluckiest offense in baseball since the start of last season.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 61 games at home (+16.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 22 games (+1.00 Units / 4% ROI)
• Kyle Tucker has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.20 Units / 72% ROI)

• Date: April 7, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers
  • Justin Steele - Cubs

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.