Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 5/8/2025

On May 8, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Texas Rangers at Fenway Park in what is the third game of their series. Both teams are currently hovering around .500, with the Red Sox sitting at 19-19 and the Rangers at 18-19. Despite their average records, the Red Sox have shown flashes of potential, particularly with their offense ranking 9th in MLB, while the Rangers struggle significantly, sitting 27th in the league.

In his last outing, the Red Sox's Brayan Bello delivered a strong performance, improving his season record to 2-0 with an impressive 2.55 ERA. Bello, ranked as the 83rd best starting pitcher in MLB, is projected to pitch 5.2 innings today and allow an average of 2.7 earned runs. However, his high walk rate of 9.6% could pose a challenge against a Rangers lineup that is among the least patient, ranking 2nd in fewest walks drawn.

Jack Leiter, on the other hand, has not found his groove this season. With a 4.58 ERA and a 2-1 record, he is one of the lower-ranked pitchers in the league. He is projected to pitch 4.6 innings today, allowing 2.8 earned runs, and faces a Red Sox offense that has been productive.

While the Red Sox are favored with a moneyline of -135 and an implied team total of 4.76 runs, the Rangers, with a +115 moneyline and an average implied total of 4.24 runs, may find themselves at a disadvantage against a superior Red Sox bullpen, currently ranked 7th in MLB. This matchup presents a compelling opportunity for the Red Sox to capitalize on their offensive strengths against a struggling pitcher.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jack Leiter has been unlucky in regards to his ERA since the start of last season; his 7.42 figure is a good deal higher than his 5.19 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Corey Seager has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.5-mph to 97.3-mph in the last week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be smart to expect stronger performance for the Texas Rangers offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Brayan Bello's fastball velocity has fallen 1.4 mph this year (94.3 mph) below where it was last year (95.7 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme groundball hitters like Alex Bregman generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Jack Leiter.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen projects as the 8th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games (+7.30 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.25 Units / 30% ROI)
• Joc Pederson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.75 Units / 41% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.94, Boston Red Sox 5.16

• Date: May 8, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Leiter - Rangers
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox

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