Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 5/7/2025

The Boston Red Sox will host the Texas Rangers on May 7, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Fenway Park. Both teams are hovering around the .500 mark, with the Red Sox holding an 18-19 record and the Rangers at 18-18. After their last encounter, where the Red Sox fell to the Rangers, this game is particularly important as both teams aim to gain momentum.

On the mound, the Red Sox are set to start Tanner Houck, who has struggled this season with an ERA of 6.38. Despite his underwhelming record of 0-2, advanced stats indicate he may have been unlucky, as his xFIP of 3.95 suggests he could perform better moving forward. Houck projects to pitch about 5.9 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out 4.9 batters, which is below average. In contrast, Tyler Mahle of the Rangers has been impressive, boasting a 3-1 record and an excellent ERA of 1.19. However, his xFIP of 3.81 indicates he might be due for some regression. Mahle's projections suggest he will pitch around 5.4 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 8th in MLB, showcasing a powerful lineup supported by a solid batting average (7th) and home runs (9th). Their offense has been particularly effective on the base paths, ranking 3rd in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Rangers' offense struggles significantly, ranking 28th overall, with a batting average of 25th and power numbers that leave much to be desired.

With the Red Sox's strong bullpen ranked 6th and the Rangers' at 27th, Boston seems poised to capitalize on their home-field advantage. Betting markets reflect this sentiment, with the Red Sox having a high implied team total of 4.86 runs. The Game Total stands at 9.5 runs, hinting at a potentially high-scoring affair, but with Boston's strengths, they may just edge out the Rangers in this crucial matchup.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Out of all the teams in action today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the Texas Rangers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Adolis Garcia is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Texas Rangers projected lineup profiles as the 4th-best on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Tanner Houck has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 3.8 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Rafael Devers has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95.3-mph average to last year's 93.1-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen ranks as the 6th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 37 games (+6.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 45% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.85 Units / 34% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.7, Boston Red Sox 4.82

• Date: May 7, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Mahle - Rangers
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox

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