Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers Pick – 4/5/2025

Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

On April 5, 2025, the Texas Rangers will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Globe Life Field for the second game of their series. The Rangers enter the matchup with a strong 6-2 record this season, while the Rays are close behind at 4-3. The stakes are significant as both teams look to establish momentum early in the season.

Jacob deGrom is projected to take the mound for the Rangers, bringing his elite status as MLB's 3rd ranked starting pitcher according to advanced stats. DeGrom has started one game this season, boasting an impressive ERA of 0.00, although his 3.54 xFIP suggests he may face some regression moving forward. His average projections indicate he could pitch 5.7 innings, allowing around 2.0 earned runs and striking out approximately 7.8 batters—impressive figures that highlight his high-strikeout capability. However, he faces a Rays lineup that has struggled to produce power, with only 3 home runs this year, ranking them 2nd lowest in MLB.

Taj Bradley is set to start for the Rays, carrying a solid 3.00 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 1-0. He has had a strong showing in his limited time, but the projections suggest he might have been a bit unlucky given his 1.27 xFIP. Bradley's average projections of 5.4 innings pitched and 3.0 earned runs may indicate a tougher outing against the Rangers.

The low Game Total of 7.5 runs reflects the struggles of both offenses, but the Rangers' strong starting pitching could tip the balance in their favor. Given the current odds, the Rangers are favored with a moneyline of -175, suggesting confidence in their ability to come out on top.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Out of all SPs, Taj Bradley's fastball velocity of 96.4 mph ranks in the 91st percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

There has been a significant decline in Yandy Diaz's launch angle from last year's 4.8° to -0.7° this season.

• A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in MLB since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jacob deGrom to have a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

This season, there has been a decline in Corey Seager's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.34 ft/sec last year to 22.61 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Texas Rangers bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 69 games at home (+11.65 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 88 of their last 148 games (+24.26 Units / 14% ROI)
• Taj Bradley has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.90 Units / 65% ROI)

• Date: April 5, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taj Bradley - Rays
  • Jacob deGrom - Rangers

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