Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Pick – 5/2/2025

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on May 2, 2025, they enter the matchup with a solid record of 18-13, sitting comfortably in the American League East. The Yankees, who are currently riding high with the best offense in MLB, are looking to rebound after a narrow 5-4 loss to the Baltimore Orioles on April 30. Meanwhile, the Rays, at 14-17, are struggling a bit more, having lost their last game 8-2 against the Kansas City Royals.

Yankees' ace Max Fried is projected to take the mound, boasting an elite status as the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Fried has been exceptional this season, sporting a perfect 5-0 record and an impressive ERA of 1.19. He projects to pitch 6.3 innings and allow just 2.2 earned runs on average. While his strikeout numbers are average at 5.6 per game, his ability to limit damage has been a key factor for the Yankees.

On the other side, the Rays will counter with Ryan Pepiot, who ranks 86th among MLB starters. Pepiot has shown flashes of promise but holds a 2-3 record with an ERA of 4.24. His projections are less favorable, suggesting he may allow around 3.0 earned runs in 5.1 innings, which could be a challenge against a potent Yankees lineup.

With the Yankees' offense leading the league in runs and home runs, they hold a significant advantage in this matchup. The Yankees are favored heavily with a moneyline of -205, reflecting their strong form and the projections that suggest a high implied team total of 4.98 runs. Expect the Yankees to capitalize on their home-field advantage as they aim to assert dominance in this first game of the series.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Ryan Pepiot is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #3 HR venue in the league in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jose Caballero's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 81.9-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 77.6-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Tampa Bay Rays have hit 32.3% of their balls in the air 100 mph or greater this year, putting them as the #9 club in the league by this stat.

• To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Max Fried's higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (58.5 compared to 49.1% last year) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Extreme groundball batters like Aaron Judge generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Aaron Judge hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 8 of their last 14 games at home (+3.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 58% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+14.20 Units / 39% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.75, New York Yankees 5.15

• Date: May 2, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays
  • Max Fried - Yankees

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