Tampa Bay Rays VS Colorado Rockies Betting Pick & Preview – 04/06/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies Overview

• Date: April 6, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Alexander - Rays
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies
• Run Line: Rays -1.5 -105, Rockies 1.5 -115
• Money Line: Rays -145, Rockies 125
• Total (Over/Under):12 -110

Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Tampa Bay Rays - 57%
• Colorado Rockies - 43%

Projected Win %:

• Tampa Bay Rays - 48.44%
• Colorado Rockies - 51.56%

Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies Game Preview & Prediction

On April 6, 2024, the Colorado Rockies will face off against the Tampa Bay Rays at Coors Field. This interleague matchup features the struggling Rockies, with a record of 2-6, as the home team, while the Rays, with a record of 3-5, will be the away team.

The Rockies are having a terrible season so far, and their offense ranks as the 21st best in MLB. Their batting average is average, ranked 18th, but their home run and stolen base rankings are among the worst in the league. The Rays, on the other hand, have an average season with a 16th ranked offense. They excel in batting average, ranked 9th, and are among the best in home runs and stolen bases, ranked 4th and 2nd, respectively.

The Rockies are projected to start Ryan Feltner, a right-handed pitcher who has been struggling this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Feltner is one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB. He has started one game this year, with a win/loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 5.40. However, his peripheral indicators suggest that he has been lucky so far and may perform worse going forward.

The Rays are projected to start Tyler Alexander, a left-handed pitcher. While Alexander is also having a rough season, our Power Rankings consider him one of the worst pitchers in MLB. He has started one game with an ERA of 9.00. However, his peripheral indicators suggest that he has been unlucky and may perform better in future outings.

Based on the current odds, the Rockies are the underdogs with a moneyline of +125, implying a win probability of 43%. However, THE BAT X projects the Rockies to have a win probability of 52%, suggesting potential value in betting on the Rockies as an underdog.

With a high Game Total of 12.0 runs, both teams are expected to have productive offenses. THE BAT X projects the Rockies to score an average of 5.56 runs, while the Rays are projected to score 5.66 runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Brandon Lowe has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that the Tampa Bay Rays will tally 5.66 runs on average in this matchup: the most of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Ryan Feltner has been given less leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 10.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Batters such as Brendan Rodgers with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tyler Alexander who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Elias Diaz, the Rockies's expected catcher today, projects as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays 5.66 vs Colorado Rockies 5.56

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.