Tampa Bay Rays vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 4/24/2025

Tampa Bay Rays vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Chase Field on April 24, 2025, in what marks the third game of this interleague series. The Diamondbacks are currently enjoying a strong season with a record of 14-10, while the Rays are struggling, sitting at 10-14. Last night, the Rays came out on top, which they will look to build on today as they continue to build momentum and climb the AL East standings.

Arizona's offense is humming, ranking 3rd overall in MLB, showcasing power and efficiency at the plate. They’ve been particularly effective in drawing walks, ranking 3rd in that category as well. However, they will face Drew Rasmussen, who is currently the 12th best starting pitcher according to advanced metrics. Rasmussen has been excellent this season with a dazzling 0.87 ERA and a high strikeout rate of 29.0%. This matchup creates a compelling clash, as the Diamondbacks' low strikeout offense, which ranks 3rd least in the league, may have an advantage against Rasmussen’s strikeout prowess.

On the other side, the Diamondbacks will send Corbin Burnes to the mound. Burnes, currently ranked 40th among pitchers, has had a mixed season with a 4.64 ERA. Despite projecting to allow only 2.3 earned runs today, his underlying numbers suggest he may be due for a rough outing, especially given his high average of hits allowed.

With the Diamondbacks favored at -135 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 4.23 runs, the projections hint at a close but favorable matchup for Arizona. As they look to continue building on their successful start, the Diamondbacks have the opportunity to capitalize on the Rays' struggles and solidify their position in the standings.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Considering that groundball pitchers have a substantial advantage over groundball bats, Drew Rasmussen and his 47.2% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot in today's matchup facing 2 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Danny Jansen has struggled with his Barrel%; his 6.4% rate last season has fallen to 0% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

In today's matchup, Yandy Diaz is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 41% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Corbin Burnes has relied on his cut-fastball 12.4% more often this season (57.4%) than he did last year (45%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

This season, Eugenio Suarez has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 99.3 mph compared to last year's 92.6 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order today (.321 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit worse than their .339 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 21 games (+3.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.00 Units / 34% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.9, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.22

• Date: April 24, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Drew Rasmussen - Rays
  • Corbin Burnes - D-Backs

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