Tampa Bay Rays vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 4/23/2025

Tampa Bay Rays vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Tampa Bay Rays on April 23, 2025, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing interleague matchup. The Diamondbacks currently sit at 14-9, enjoying a solid season, while the Rays are struggling at 9-14, having faced difficulties throughout the early part of the year. In their last game, the Diamondbacks edged out the Rays, showcasing their offensive prowess.

Arizona's Eduardo Rodriguez is projected to take the mound, bringing with him a Power Ranking of 36th among MLB starters. Despite a modest 1-2 record and an ERA of 4.09, Rodriguez's 2.46 xFIP indicates he may be due for better results. He averages 5.6 innings pitched and is projected to allow 2.5 earned runs, although he may struggle with hits and walks, allowing 5.3 hits and 1.7 walks per game on average.

On the other side, Tampa Bay will counter with Taj Bradley, who ranks 65th among starters. His 2-1 record and 5.24 ERA suggest issues, particularly with a high walk rate of 10.5%. The projections indicate he may pitch 5.4 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs but also gives up an average of 5.2 hits and 1.8 walks, which could spell trouble against the Diamondbacks' potent offense.

Arizona's offense ranks 3rd overall in MLB and is particularly dangerous, having hit 32 home runs this season. This power could capitalize on Bradley's tendency to give up fly balls, further tilting the scales in the Diamondbacks' favor. With a high implied team total of 4.85 runs, Arizona is positioned well to continue their winning ways against a struggling Rays team.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taj Bradley has used his change-up 5.5% less often this season (21.3%) than he did last year (26.8%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Jonathan Aranda will probably have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Tampa Bay Rays (20.7 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone set of hitters of all teams on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense projects as the 2nd-best out of all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Typically, hitters like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Taj Bradley.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Arizona's 90.5-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the majors: #4 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 23 games (+3.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.35 Units / 34% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+7.60 Units / 95% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.42, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.71

• Date: April 23, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taj Bradley - Rays
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs

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