St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Pick – 4/17/2025

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Betting Preview

On April 17, 2025, the New York Mets will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Citi Field in a pivotal National League matchup. The Mets sit at an 11-7 record this season, showcasing a strong start, while the Cardinals have struggled to find consistency at 9-9. In their last game, the Mets lost to the Minnesota Twins and will look to get back to their winning ways today.

The Mets will send Griffin Canning to the mound, who has had an inconsistent season thus far. With a Win/Loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 4.20, Canning has proven to be one of the weaker pitchers in the league, ranking 235th out of approximately 350 starters. Despite this, projections suggest he will average 5.5 innings pitched today, allowing 2.5 earned runs but with concerning statistics regarding walks and hits allowed.

On the other hand, the Cardinals will counter with Andre Pallante, who has been a bright spot for them. With a perfect 2-0 record and an impressive ERA of 2.20, Pallante's performance has ranked him 77th among MLB starters, indicating he is well above average. Projections for Pallante suggest he will pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs but struggling with hits and walks as well.

The batting lineup favors the Cardinals, whose offense ranks 4th in MLB, bolstered by a league-leading batting average. In contrast, the Mets' offense has been lackluster. With the Game Total set low at 7.5 runs, bettors may find value in the Mets' moneyline of -140, implying a win probability of 56%. Given the Mets' favorable situation at home and the disparity between the two pitchers' recent performances, they may have the edge in this matchup.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Andre Pallante's slider utilization has jumped by 6.9% from last season to this one (17.8% to 24.7%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Extreme flyball hitters like Nolan Gorman tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Griffin Canning.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Out of all SPs, Griffin Canning's fastball spin rate of 2121 rpm ranks in the 10th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Pete Alonso has made significant gains with his Barrel%, upping his 13.2% rate last season to 23.6% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 2nd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the New York Mets.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.45 Units / 12% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+17.45 Units / 34% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.22, New York Mets 4.03

• Date: April 17, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals
  • Griffin Canning - Mets

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