St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Pick – 5/1/2025

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

On May 1, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the St. Louis Cardinals in the fourth game of their series at Great American Ball Park. In their last matchup, the Cardinals took the win. Currently, the Reds sit above .500 with a record of 16-15, while the Cardinals trail at 14-17, struggling to find their footing this season.

Cincinnati's Andrew Abbott is projected to take the mound, bringing a 2-0 record and a solid 3.60 ERA into this game. While Abbott ranks as the 165th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, his 2.62 xERA suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. On the other hand, St. Louis will counter with Matthew Liberatore, who has an impressive 3.19 ERA and a 2-2 record, but his average performance is reflected in his status as an average pitcher in the league.

Offensively, the Reds boast the 7th best lineup in MLB, with a particularly strong batting average ranking of 6th. Their ability to generate runs has been evident, and they project to score an impressive 4.35 runs today. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, while ranking 11th overall, have shown weaknesses, particularly with a low home run tally, ranking 23rd in that category.

With the Reds' offense firing on all cylinders and Abbott's potential for a strong outing, they have the edge as they look to continue their winning ways against a Cardinals team that has struggled to maintain consistency.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Out of all starting pitchers, Matthew Liberatore's fastball spin rate of 2047 rpm grades out in the 6th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Luken Baker has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 7th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.9% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #1 HR venue among all major league stadiums in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Noelvi Marte has hit reached a maximum exit velocity of 116.7 mph (an advanced metric to study power), placing in the 98th percentile.

• If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again. If he's never hit the ball hard, it's a sign of a lack of power.

Cincinnati's 88.5-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in MLB: #26 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.95 Units / 16% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games (+2.85 Units / 11% ROI)
• Lars Nootbaar has hit the Runs Over in his last 6 games (+6.20 Units / 89% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.86, Cincinnati Reds 4.62

• Date: May 1, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matthew Liberatore - Cardinals
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds

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