St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction – 4/21/2025

St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on April 21, 2025, both teams are struggling to find their footing this season, with the Braves holding an 8-13 record and the Cardinals at 9-13. These franchises, typically among the league's elite, are trying to shake off their slow starts and find some momentum.

In this game, Spencer Schwellenbach projects to start on the hill for the Braves. Schwellenbach ranks as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, showcasing his potential despite the team's overall struggles. He has a solid ERA of 2.55 this season and projects to allow an average of 2.3 earned runs today. However, his higher SIERA and xERA suggest he might not maintain this level of success going forward.

On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with Erick Fedde, who has been more average this year with a 3.43 ERA and a 1-2 record. Fedde's projections indicate he might struggle, allowing about 3.1 earned runs while giving up 5.7 hits and 1.7 walks on average. Given the Braves' offensive strengths—ranking 10th in home runs—they could capitalize on his weaknesses.

The Braves' offense is currently ranked 19th in MLB, but with a high implied team total of 4.85 runs for today's matchup, they may find the spark needed to support Schwellenbach and secure a much-needed win against the struggling Cardinals, who have a low implied team total of 3.65 runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Erick Fedde's 2065-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 12th percentile among all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme flyball hitters like Nolan Gorman tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Spencer Schwellenbach.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Spencer Schwellenbach has recorded 17.8 outs per start since the start of last season, checking in at the 94th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Michael Harris II is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Sean Murphy pulls many of his flyballs (35.3% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 2nd-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.55 Units / 11% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 10 games (+0.45 Units / 4% ROI)
• Alec Burleson has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.70 Units / 45% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.1, Atlanta Braves 5.16

• Date: April 21, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves

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