St. Louis Cardinals at Detroit Tigers Best Bet – 4/29/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Detroit Tigers Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 29, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Steven Matz - Cardinals
  • Kenta Maeda - Tigers
• Run Line: Cardinals -1.5 155, Tigers 1.5 -175
• Money Line: Cardinals -110, Tigers -110
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

St. Louis Cardinals vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• St. Louis Cardinals - 50%
• Detroit Tigers - 50%

Projected Win %:

• St. Louis Cardinals - 51.36%
• Detroit Tigers - 48.64%

St. Louis Cardinals vs Detroit Tigers Game Preview & Prediction

The Detroit Tigers are set to face off against the St. Louis Cardinals on April 29, 2024, at Comerica Park. As the home team, the Tigers will look to capitalize on their good season with a record of 16-12, while the Cardinals aim to improve their below-average season with a record of 13-15. This Interleague matchup promises an exciting game for both teams.

The Tigers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Kenta Maeda, who has had an average performance this season according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Maeda has started five games and holds a 0-1 win/loss record with a high ERA of 5.96. However, his 4.58 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Cardinals will have left-handed pitcher Steven Matz on the mound. Matz, also considered an average pitcher by our Power Rankings, has started five games with a 1-2 win/loss record and an ERA of 5.55. Similar to Maeda, his 4.75 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may improve in future outings.

The Tigers' offense ranks poorly in MLB, sitting at #27 in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. In contrast, the Cardinals' offense shows more promise, ranking #7 in batting average and #5 in home runs. However, both teams have struggled in stolen bases, with the Tigers at #28 and the Cardinals at #23.

Looking at the individual performances, the Tigers' best hitter this season has been a standout, while the Cardinals' top performer has also been impressive. In their last seven games, Mark Canha has been the Tigers' best hitter, recording 10 hits, 5 runs, 6 RBIs, and 2 home runs with a batting average of .435 and an OPS of 1.283. Alec Burleson has been the Cardinals' top hitter in the last seven games, hitting 1 home run with a batting average of .400 and an OPS of 1.238.

With a Game Total of 8.5 runs, the betting markets anticipate a close game, as both teams have a moneyline set at -110, indicating a 50% implied win probability for each team. The Tigers have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs, as do the Cardinals.

Overall, the Tigers' solid record and the Cardinals' struggles this season make the Tigers the favorites in this matchup. However, with both teams having capable pitchers on the mound and the Cardinals' stronger offense, this game could be closer than expected. Keep an eye on the performances of Maeda and Matz, as well as the key hitters for each team, as they could greatly impact the outcome of the game.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (43.2% — 100th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 5th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Recording 13.6 outs per outing this year on average, Kenta Maeda falls in the 17th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Riley Greene is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of St. Louis (#2-best of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.89 Units / 46% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 44 away games (+8.13 Units / 16% ROI)
• Riley Greene has only hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 14 games at home (-0.10 Units / -1% ROI)

Cardinals vs Tigers Prediction: Cardinals 4.85 - Tigers 4.48

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