Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Prediction – 5/4/2025

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

On May 4, 2025, the Texas Rangers will host the Seattle Mariners at Globe Life Field for the third game of their series. The Rangers are currently struggling with a record of 16-18, sitting near the bottom of the American League West standings, while the Mariners are enjoying a solid season at 20-12 and rank as one of the top teams in MLB. In their previous matchup, the Mariners triumphed, and this game presents a critical opportunity for the Rangers to turn their season around. Texas's offense ranks 27th in the league, severely hampering their ability to compete.

On the mound, the Rangers are projected to start Jacob deGrom, who is currently regarded as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. DeGrom has been effective this season, with an excellent ERA of 2.73, but he faces a powerful Mariners offense that ranks 4th in home runs and has accumulated 49 homers so far this year. As a flyball pitcher with a 44% flyball rate, deGrom may be susceptible to the long ball against this lineup.

The Mariners will counter with Logan Evans, who has been less impressive as a starting pitcher, carrying a 3.60 ERA but projecting poorly with a 5.37 xFIP. Given the Rangers’ tendencies to swing freely, they might not be able to exploit Evans’s high-walk rate, which could work to his advantage.

Currently, the Rangers are favored with a moneyline of -175 and an implied team total of 4.50 runs, indicating that oddsmakers believe they should capitalize on this opportunity to secure a win against the Mariners.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Logan Evans to be limited today, projecting a maximum of 84 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

J.P. Crawford is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

In today's matchup, J.P. Crawford is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.9% rate (97th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

With 6 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected offense, Jacob deGrom has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joc Pederson can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Texas Rangers have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 33 games (+11.95 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.85 Units / 39% ROI)
• Josh Jung has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.60 Units / 31% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.01, Texas Rangers 4.9

• Date: May 4, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Evans - Mariners
  • Jacob deGrom - Rangers

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