Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 4/24/2025

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on April 24, 2025, both teams find themselves in competitive positions early in the season. The Red Sox, with a record of 14-12, are having an above-average start, while the Mariners sit slightly behind at 13-11, also enjoying a solid campaign. This matchup marks the third game in their series, with the teams splitting the first two contests, and Seattle winning on Wednesday.

On the mound, Boston is projected to start Garrett Crochet, who has made a strong impression this season with a stellar ERA of 1.13. Currently ranked as the 9th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Crochet has demonstrated elite capabilities, striking out an average of 7.1 batters while allowing just 4.6 hits per game. However, his xFIP of 3.19 suggests he may have benefitted from some luck thus far.

Seattle counters with Bryan Woo, who has been effective as well, posting an ERA of 3.12 and ranking as the 32nd best starting pitcher. Although his numbers are solid, Woo faces a Red Sox offense that ranks 8th in the league, which will test his limits. The projections indicate he may struggle against a lineup that excels at drawing walks—something Woo's low walk rate of 5.8% may neutralize.

The Red Sox bullpen is also a point of strength, ranked 6th in MLB, while Seattle's bullpen struggles considerably, sitting at 29th. With a high implied team total of 4.53 runs, Boston is favored to put up strong offensive numbers against a Mariners team with a low implied total of 3.47 runs. This game could be pivotal as the teams jockey for position early in the season, making it a must-watch for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Given that flyball hitters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Bryan Woo (35.7% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in the opposition's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Randy Arozarena has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.7-mph average to last year's 94.2-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Seattle Mariners bullpen profiles as the worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Garrett Crochet's four-seam fastball rate has dropped by 6.7% from last year to this one (53.7% to 47%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Extreme flyball bats like Alex Bregman usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Bryan Woo.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.60 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.50 Units / 34% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.25 Units / 34% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.16, Boston Red Sox 4.73

• Date: April 24, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners
  • Garrett Crochet - Red Sox

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.