San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 4/14/2025

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

On April 14, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the San Francisco Giants at Citizens Bank Park, marking the first game of their series. The Phillies, sporting a record of 9-6, are having a solid season, but they’ll face a tough challenge against the Giants, who sit at 11-4 and are performing exceptionally well. Notably, the Giants are coming off a strong performance, bolstering their confidence heading into this matchup.

The Phillies are projected to start Taijuan Walker, who has had an interesting season thus far. Although he boasts an impressive 0.00 ERA, his 4.34 xFIP indicates he may have benefited from some good fortune. Walker's projections suggest he will pitch about 5.0 innings while allowing 3.0 earned runs, which does not bode well against a competent Giants lineup. In contrast, Landen Roupp of the Giants, ranked 75th among MLB starters, has a respectable 3.60 ERA and is projected to allow 2.3 earned runs over 4.6 innings. His lower xFIP of 3.08 suggests he’s likely to perform better moving forward.

The Phillies offense ranks 9th in MLB, showing strength in their batting lineup, while the Giants rank 14th overall, indicating a more average performance at the plate. However, the Giants' bullpen shines as the 2nd best in MLB, providing them with a significant advantage in late-game situations. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive contest.

With the Phillies holding an implied team total of 4.35 runs, bettors might find value in their chances to secure a win, especially considering the Giants’ slight underdog status at +100. As both teams look to establish momentum early in this series, fans can expect a closely contested game.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Landen Roupp is projected to throw 80 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 2nd-least on the slate.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

LaMonte Wade Jr. is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Wilmer Flores pulls many of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Taijuan Walker has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 11% more often this season (70.8%) than he did last season (59.8%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Bryce Harper is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the San Francisco Giants only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Philadelphia Phillies projected offense ranks as the 3rd-best of the day in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• LaMonte Wade Jr has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+12.95 Units / 35% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 5.36, Philadelphia Phillies 4.59

• Date: April 14, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Landen Roupp - Giants
  • Taijuan Walker - Phillies

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