San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick – 4/17/2025

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face the San Francisco Giants on April 17, 2025, they enter the matchup in the midst of a strong season, holding a 10-8 record. In contrast, the Giants are off to a hot start with a 13-5 record, showcasing why they are currently among the top teams in the National League. Last night, the Giants edged out the Phillies, securing a hard-fought victory in the third game of this series, which adds even more intrigue to today's matchup.

On the mound, Cristopher Sanchez is projected to start for the Phillies. Notably, Sanchez has performed well this season, with a 1-0 record and an impressive 3.12 ERA across three starts. His advanced-stat Power Ranking places him as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he is among the league's upper tier. The projections suggest he will average 5.9 innings pitched while allowing 2.3 earned runs, but he also has a concerning tendency to give up 5.3 hits and 1.4 walks per game.

For the Giants, Jordan Hicks takes the hill. Despite a 1-1 record, Hicks has struggled with a 5.87 ERA, ranked 57th among starting pitchers. However, projections indicate he could be set to improve, as he has been somewhat unlucky. While he is forecasted to allow 2.3 earned runs in 4.9 innings, his high strikeout percentage might pose challenges for the Phillies, who have a propensity for strikeouts.

With the Phillies favored at -170 and a projected total of 8.0 runs for the game, this battle showcases two teams going in different directions, setting the stage for an exciting clash at Citizens Bank Park.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Generating 14.9 outs per outing since the start of last season on average, Jordan Hicks ranks in the 21st percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Willy Adames has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.2-mph average to last season's 93.6-mph EV.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen projects as the 2nd-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The San Francisco Giants have 8 batters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Bryce Harper has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 28.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is inflated compared to his 21.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Bryce Harper has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+7.90 Units / 99% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 3.89, Philadelphia Phillies 4.51

• Date: April 17, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Hicks - Giants
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.