San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – 5/7/2025

The Chicago Cubs will host the San Francisco Giants on May 7, 2025, in a pivotal National League matchup. Both teams are off to strong starts this season, with the Cubs at 22-15 and the Giants slightly ahead at 23-14. The Cubs' offense is ranked 2nd in MLB, showcasing their talent and depth, while the Giants sit at a middle-of-the-pack 16th. The stakes are high as this game is the third contest in their current series.

In their last game, the Cubs suffered a disappointing loss against the Giants, but they have a significant advantage with their powerful offense facing Giants' Robbie Ray, a left-handed pitcher who allows a high number of fly balls. With a total of 55 home runs this season, the Cubs' power could turn those fly balls into runs and further capitalize on Ray's struggles with walks, indicating that the Cubs' patient approach could lead to offensive opportunities.

Chicago is projected to start Ben Brown, whose Power Rankings place him as the 61st best starting pitcher in MLB, highlighting his above-average potential despite a below-average 4.88 ERA this season. Brown has shown unfortunate luck, as his 3.83 xFIP suggests he could improve in the near future. Conversely, Robbie Ray boasts a solid 4-0 record and a stellar 3.05 ERA, but the projections indicate he may regress as the season unfolds.

With a betting favorite status and an implied team total of 3.74 runs for the Cubs, this matchup presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors. Given the contrasting offensive strengths and pitching styles, fans can expect an engaging game with plenty of action at Wrigley Field.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Robbie Ray is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #22 HR venue in the league in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Patrick Bailey's average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 86.8-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 82.2-mph in the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen projects as the 2nd-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Ben Brown has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 59.3% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Extreme groundball bats like Justin Turner generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Robbie Ray.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Kyle Tucker pulls many of his flyballs (34.9% — 87th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games (+13.65 Units / 34% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 33 games (+3.75 Units / 8% ROI)
• Carson Kelly has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 52% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 3.29, Chicago Cubs 3.7

• Date: May 7, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Robbie Ray - Giants
  • Ben Brown - Cubs

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