San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick – 5/2/2025

San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the San Diego Padres at PNC Park on May 2, 2025, both teams are coming into this matchup with contrasting fortunes. The Pirates currently sit at 12-20, struggling significantly this season, while the Padres boast a strong 19-11 record. The Padres are having a great season and will look to build on that momentum in this series opening game.

On the mound, Pittsburgh is projected to start Mitch Keller, who has had a rough season thus far. Although he has a respectable ERA of 3.97, his xERA of 5.28 suggests he has been lucky and may struggle moving forward. Keller's ability to strike out batters has also been less than impressive, with a low strikeout rate of 17.5%. He will be facing a Padres offense that ranks 14th in MLB and is known for being difficult to strike out, which might play to their advantage.

The Padres counter with Dylan Cease, who, despite a poor ERA of 5.76, has a favorable projection with a xFIP of 3.73. Cease's strikeout potential at 6.5 batters per game is a significant factor, especially against a Pirates lineup that ranks 26th in team batting average and 28th in home runs. The Pirates have struggled offensively, and while they excel in stolen bases, their overall ability to generate runs has been lacking.

Betting odds currently favor the Padres with a moneyline of -150, reflecting their stronger position in this matchup. The Game Total is set at an average 8.0 runs, indicating a competitive game. With the Pirates' difficulties and the projections leaning in favor of the Padres, this matchup seems to heavily favor the visitors.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Over his previous 3 GS, Dylan Cease has suffered a significant decline in his fastball spin rate: from 2528 rpm over the entire season to 2467 rpm lately.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

There has been a decrease in Jason Heyward's average exit velocity this season, from 88 mph last year to 84 mph now

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 7th-best batter in Major League Baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mitch Keller is an extreme flyball pitcher (31.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #25 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Batters such as Tommy Pham with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Dylan Cease who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 9th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.70 Units / 13% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+3.92 Units / 26% ROI)
• Dylan Cease has hit the Earned Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.25 Units / 49% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 5.17, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.15

• Date: May 2, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates

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