San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees Pick – 5/6/2025

On May 6, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the San Diego Padres in an exciting interleague matchup at Yankee Stadium. After a recent loss to the Padres in their last encounter, the Yankees will look to bounce back against a strong opponent with a solid record of 23-11 this season, reflecting their status as one of the league's best teams. The Yankees, currently three games over .500 at 19-16, are also having an above-average season, bolstered by an offense that ranks 1st in MLB in both team batting average and home runs.

Clarke Schmidt, projected to start for New York, has faced challenges this year with a 0-1 record and a 5.52 ERA, indicating struggles on the mound. However, advanced projections suggest he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve, especially as he’s projected to pitch 5.7 innings today, allowing 2.2 earned runs. Yet, he faces a tough test against Michael King, the Padres’ ace, who boasts an impressive 4-1 record and a stellar 2.09 ERA, ranking as the 19th best pitcher in MLB.

The Yankees' potent lineup, which features a high strikeout rate (4th most in MLB), might prove to be an interesting matchup against King's high strikeout ability (29.5 K%). Nonetheless, the Yankees' power could exploit King's tendency to give up fly balls.

With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, oddsmakers see this as a close contest, with both teams currently sitting at -110 on the moneyline, suggesting an evenly matched battle. The Yankees’ elite offense may hold the edge, making them a compelling choice for bettors looking to capitalize on their potential to outperform their implied win probability.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Michael King has notched a 28.3% K% this year, ranking in the 89th percentile.

• One of the best indicators of future strikeouts is past strikeouts.

Gavin Sheets has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (73% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the San Diego Padres with a 18.8% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Clarke Schmidt will give up an average of 2.49 earned runs in today's matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Ben Rice has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.9-mph average to last year's 90-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The New York Yankees bullpen grades out as the 10th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 games (+5.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.70 Units / 57% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+6.05 Units / 86% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.34, New York Yankees 4.22

• Date: May 6, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael King - Padres
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees

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