San Diego Padres vs Detroit Tigers Prediction – 4/23/2025

San Diego Padres vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

On April 23, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the San Diego Padres at Comerica Park for the third game of their interleague series. The Tigers enter this matchup with a solid 14-10 record, while the Padres are slightly ahead at 17-7, showcasing both teams' strong starts to the season. Reese Olson is projected to start for Detroit in this contest. Meanwhile, Kyle Hart takes the mound for San Diego, struggling with a 6.48 ERA this season.

The Tigers' offense ranks 11th overall in MLB, with a commendable 10th in team batting average. However, they have been less impressive in terms of power, ranking 19th in home runs. In contrast, the Padres boast the 4th best offense in MLB, highlighted by their league-leading batting average. This offensive prowess could pose a significant challenge for Olson, despite his above-average ranking among starting pitchers.

Olson's projections suggest he will pitch around 5.8 innings today, allowing approximately 2.1 earned runs, which is a solid expectation. However, he might face difficulties with his projected 5.2 hits and 1.4 walks allowed. On the other hand, Hart is expected to struggle as well, with projections indicating he might only pitch 5.0 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs.

With the Tigers' bullpen ranked 2nd and the Padres at 7th, the late innings could be pivotal. Detroit is currently favored with a moneyline of -155, hinting at a high implied team total of 4.66 runs. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive matchup. Given the current trends and the Tigers' home advantage, they might just edge out the Padres in this critical clash.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the worst infield defense is that of the the San Diego Padres.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Extreme groundball batters like Jose Iglesias are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Reese Olson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen profiles as the 6th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Because flyball batters struggle against flyball pitchers, Reese Olson (47.7% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 4 FB hitters in the opposing team's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Kerry Carpenter is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Spencer Torkelson pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.8% — 94th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 5th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.70 Units / 44% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.15 Units / 59% ROI)
• Andy Ibanez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+11.80 Units / 295% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 3.57, Detroit Tigers 4.55

• Date: April 23, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Hart - Padres
  • Reese Olson - Tigers

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