San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Pick – 5/9/2025

On May 9, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the San Diego Padres at Coors Field in what promises to be an intriguing matchup in the National League West. Both teams are entering this game with stark contrasts in performance. The Rockies have struggled immensely, holding a record of 6-31, while the Padres have found success with a record of 23-13. Here, the Padres will look to showcase their offensive capabilities, which rank as the 13th best in MLB this season, despite a modest home run tally.

Antonio Senzatela is projected to start for the Rockies, and his 1-5 record with an ERA of 5.50 this season points to a challenging outing ahead. Although Senzatela’s 4.44 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky, his projections indicate he’ll allow 3.5 earned runs over 5.3 innings, with a high average of 7.2 hits. Conversely, Randy Vasquez, who is also struggling, holds a 3.90 ERA but has a concerning 6.62 xFIP that indicates potential regression.

The matchup favors the Padres as they face a Rockies offense that ranks 29th in MLB, while the Padres’ low-strikeout offense will likely capitalize on Senzatela's low strikeout rate. The Rockies' overall offensive stats paint a grim picture against a Padres team that’s projected to secure a substantial total of 6.22 runs for this game.

With the Rockies as significant underdogs, bettors might find value in the Padres' opportunity to continue their winning streak against a team struggling to find footing this season.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Out of all starters, Randy Vasquez's fastball spin rate of 2409.5 rpm ranks in the 84th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Gavin Sheets has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The San Diego Padres (17.9 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-prone group of batters on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Antonio Senzatela is an extreme groundball pitcher (47.7% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Coors Field — the #8 HR venue among all major league parks — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Nick Martini's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 90.4-mph figure last year has fallen to 83.8-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen grades out as the 7th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 37 games (+10.92 Units / 24% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 34 games (+7.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+5.95 Units / 58% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 6.37, Colorado Rockies 5.54

• Date: May 9, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres
  • Antonio Senzatela - Rockies

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