San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 4/5/2025

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

On April 5, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the San Diego Padres at Wrigley Field for the second game of their series. Both teams are enjoying strong starts to the season, with the Cubs sitting at 6-4 and the Padres at 7-1. The Cubs are looking to build on their momentum after a solid performance in their last game, while the Padres aim to maintain their early-season dominance.

Projected starters Matthew Boyd and Nick Pivetta present an intriguing matchup. Boyd, a left-handed pitcher, has had an impressive start to the season, boasting a perfect 0.00 ERA over one start, although his 4.92 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate. He projects to average 5.4 innings with 1.9 earned runs allowed, but his high projected hits (4.4) and walks (1.7) could be concerning against a potent Padres lineup that ranks 9th in MLB offense.

Pivetta, a right-handed pitcher, also has a stellar 0.00 ERA from one start, coupled with a solid 3.09 xFIP. His projections indicate he will pitch around 5.3 innings while allowing approximately 2.1 earned runs and striking out 6.0 batters. Pivetta excels at limiting walks, which could neutralize the Cubs’ patient approach at the plate, as they lead the league in walks.

The Cubs' offense ranks 15th overall but has shown power with a 5th rank in home runs. However, they face a challenge against Pivetta, who is a low-strikeout, high-groundball pitcher. Meanwhile, the Padres have a strong offense, particularly in batting average (5th), but struggle with home runs, ranking 30th.

With the Cubs favored at -120 and the Padres at +100, this matchup offers an enticing opportunity for bettors, especially given the Cubs' recent form and their ability to capitalize on Pivetta's weaknesses.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The San Diego Padres outfield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jake Cronenworth is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The San Diego Padres have been the luckiest offense in the league since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Matthew Boyd is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #22 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Nico Hoerner's average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 85.7-mph mark last season has dropped off to 83.7-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 60 games at home (+15.75 Units / 22% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 114 games (+17.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.35 Units / 50% ROI)

• Date: April 5, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Pivetta - Padres
  • Matthew Boyd - Cubs

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