San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Game 1 Prediction – 5/20/2024

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Game 1 Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 20, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Game 1 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Game 1 Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves will be hosting the San Diego Padres in a National League matchup scheduled to be played on May 20, 2024 at Truist Park. The Braves, with a season record of 26-16, are having a great season, while the Padres have a record of 24-24, indicating an average season for them.

Reynaldo Lopez is projected to start for the Braves, while the Padres are projected to start Dylan Cease. Both pitchers are right-handed and have shown good performances this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Dylan Cease is considered an elite starting pitcher, ranking #14 out of approximately 350 pitchers. On the other hand, Reynaldo Lopez is above average, ranked #80.

This game is the first of a double-header between the two teams and the third game in the series.

The Braves have an impressive offense this season, ranking #6 in MLB overall and #1 in team batting average and home runs. The Padres also have a solid offense, ranking #8 overall and #10 in team home runs. Both teams have strong lineups, but the Braves' power hitting might pose a challenge for Dylan Cease, who has a tendency to give up flyballs.

Reynaldo Lopez has started 7 games this year, with a Win/Loss record of 2-1 and an excellent ERA of 1.34. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well going forward. Dylan Cease, on the other hand, has started 9 games with a Win/Loss record of 5-3 and an impressive ERA of 2.45. His xFIP also indicates some regression, but he has been performing at an elite level.

Considering the pitching matchup, the Padres may have an advantage in terms of patience at the plate. Reynaldo Lopez is a high-walk pitcher, and the Padres have the second-most walks in MLB. However, Dylan Cease's high-strikeout ability might be mitigated by the Braves' low-strikeout offense.

The Braves have a strong bullpen, ranked #6 in MLB according to our Power Rankings, while the Padres have the #7 ranked bullpen. Both teams have reliable relief pitchers to rely on.

Based on the current odds, the Braves are favored to win with a moneyline set at -125, giving them an implied win probability of 55.56%. The Padres have a moneyline of +105, with an implied win probability of 48.78%. The game total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a slighly below average expectation for the total number of runs scored.

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 3.66 vs Atlanta Braves 3.77

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