San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick For 4/13/2024

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Overview

• Date: April 13, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matt Waldron - Padres
  • Gavin Stone - Dodgers
• Run Line: Padres 1.5 -125, Dodgers -1.5 105
• Money Line: Padres 165, Dodgers -190
• Total (Over/Under):9 -110

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• San Diego Padres - 37%
• Los Angeles Dodgers - 63%

Projected Win %:

• San Diego Padres - 36%
• Los Angeles Dodgers - 64%

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game Preview & Prediction

On April 13, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the San Diego Padres in an exciting National League West matchup at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers are having a great season so far with a record of 10-5, while the Padres are struggling with a below-average record of 7-8.

The Dodgers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Gavin Stone, who has had a tough start to the season. Stone has a record of 0-1 and an ERA of 7.88. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. On the other side, the Padres will send right-handed pitcher Matt Waldron to the mound. Waldron has been more consistent with a 0-1 record and an ERA of 3.86.

In terms of offense, the Dodgers have been impressive this season, ranking as the second best team in MLB. They excel in home runs but struggle with stolen bases. The Padres have a solid offense, ranking eighth in MLB and performing well in home runs and stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Dodgers are the betting favorites with a high implied win probability of 63%. However, it's important to note that projections by THE BAT X suggest a low scoring game.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Waldron to throw 84 pitches in this game (10th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Ha-seong Kim is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Mookie Betts has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.8-mph to 100-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Chris Taylor, James Outman, Teoscar Hernandez, Max Muncy).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Padres vs Dodgers Prediction: Padres 4.46 - Dodgers 5.73

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