Updated September 29, 2026
*Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket and may change as the market fluctuates.
The Yankees enter Game 1 as 56¢ favorites on Polymarket, compared to 44.5¢ for the Red Sox. The total is set at just 6.5 runs, with the Over trading at 47¢ and the Under at 54¢.
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The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees renew their rivalry on Tuesday, September 29, as they open their AL Wild Card Series with a trip to the ALDS at stake. Along with the full-game matchup, we've identified a few player props worth targeting in Game 1.
Our ATS Quantitative Model has identified three Red Sox vs Yankees player prop predictions with value on Cam Schlittler, Wilyer Abreu and Paul Goldschmidt. Below, we'll take a closer look at each of these MLB predictions, the stats supporting them and where we see an edge at the current Polymarket prices.
Schlittler Has Been Racking Up Strikeouts
Schlittler finished the regular season with 239 strikeouts and a 31.4% strikeout rate, ranking in MLB's 96th percentile. His fastball has been particularly effective, generating a 34.8% whiff rate. He also recorded at least eight strikeouts in three of his five September starts.
He's Had Success Against Boston
Schlittler recorded 27 strikeouts over 24⅓ innings in four starts against the Red Sox this season, including nine on June 25 and eight on August 28. He also struck out 12 Boston hitters over eight scoreless innings in last year's Wild Card Series.
A Short Final Start Could Help His Game 1 Workload
Schlittler pitched just three innings in his final regular-season start on September 24. With New York opening a best-of-three series at home, he should be well-rested and have a chance to work deep into Game 1, giving him more opportunities to reach eight strikeouts.
Recommended Prediction:
Cam Schlittler 8+ Ks
Current Market Price:
46¢
Model Win Probability:
50.5%
Market-Implied Probability:
46.0%
Model Edge:
+4.5%
Buy Up To:
50¢
Model Trade Confidence:
74/100
Abreu Has Had Success Against the Yankees
Wilyer Abreu recorded six hits, including three doubles and a home run, during Boston's four-game series against New York in late August. He also scored twice and drove in a run, reaching at least two combined hits, runs and RBIs in all four games.
He Doesn't Need a Huge Game to Clear This Total
Abreu finished the regular season with 24 home runs, 81 runs and 76 RBIs. He also drew 71 walks this year, giving him another way to reach base and potentially score. Even against a pitcher like Schlittler, a hit and a run or RBI would be enough to clear this prop.
Abreu's Underlying Numbers Are Encouraging
Abreu's 12.1% barrel rate shows he can make hard contact, while his strikeout rate dropped from 24.2% last season to 20.7% in 2026. That improved contact rate gives him another way to contribute against Schlittler, even if New York's starter pitches deep into Game 1.
Recommended Prediction:
Abreu O1.5 H+R+RBI
Current Market Price:
39¢
Model Over Probability:
43.8%
Market-Implied Probability:
39.0%
Model Edge:
+4.8%
Buy Up To:
43¢
Model Trade Confidence:
76/100
Goldschmidt Has Been Crushing Left-Handed Pitching
Paul Goldschmidt hit .299 with a .967 OPS and 11 home runs against lefties this season, compared to just .213 with a .590 OPS against righties. That's a pretty big difference, especially with Boston sending left-hander Payton Tolle to the mound in Game 1.
His Fastball Numbers Give Us Another Reason to Like Him
Goldschmidt hit .293 with a .674 slugging percentage against four-seamers this season, generating a +8 run value against the pitch, according to Statcast. Tolle throws his four-seamer nearly 45% of the time, so Goldschmidt should get plenty of chances against a pitch he's had success with this year.
Goldschmidt Still Has Above-Average Power Numbers
Paul Goldschmidt finished the regular season with a 9.9% barrel rate, above the MLB average of 7.6%. He's also been used near the top of New York's lineup against lefties, which could give him an extra plate appearance if Aaron Boone takes the same approach in Game 1.
Recommended Prediction:
Goldschmidt to Hit a HR
Current Market Price:
12¢
Model HR Probability:
17.2%
Market-Implied Probability:
12.0%
Model Edge:
+5.2%
Buy Up To:
16¢
Model Trade Confidence:
78/100
With two talented young starters on the mound and plenty at stake in this rivalry, we could be looking at a tight, low-scoring game where every run matters. That would fit our Cam Schlittler strikeout prediction, especially if he settles in early and works deep into the game.
For Boston, Wilyer Abreu doesn't need the Red Sox to put up a lot of runs to clear his total. A hit and a run or RBI would be enough, even if Schlittler keeps Boston's lineup relatively quiet. Meanwhile, veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt could make an impact with one swing against Payton Tolle, giving New York a chance to put runs on the board even if hits are hard to come by.
For a closer look at the matchup, including our projected winner and full-game analysis, check out our Red Sox vs Yankees Game 1 prediction. We also have a full Red Sox vs Yankees series preview for a more complete breakdown of both teams and how we see the best-of-three series playing out.
