Taj Bradley MLB projections and prop bets for Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox on Sep 27, 2024
Taj Bradley Player Prop Bet: Strikeouts
Strikeouts Prop Bet Odds:
- Strikeouts 6.5 over: 130
- Strikeouts 6.5 under: -166
Trends Favoring The Over Strikeouts Prop Bet
The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Taj Bradley in the 89th percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.
Taj Bradley has averaged 93.2 adjusted pitches per GS this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile.
The Boston Red Sox have 6 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Wong, Wilyer Abreu, Romy Gonzalez, Triston Casas, Tyler O'Neill, Trevor Story).
Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to less offense.
Taj Bradley's change-up rate has increased by 13.3% from last year to this one (13.9% to 27.2%) .
Trends Favoring The Under Strikeouts Prop Bet
Playing on the road typically reduces pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Taj Bradley in today's game.
Given the 0.13 disparity between Taj Bradley's 10.02 K/9 and his 9.89 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball this year as it relates to strikeouts and should negatively regress going forward.
Projection For Taj Bradley Strikeouts Prop Bet
Taj Bradley is projected to have 6.2 Strikeouts in this weeks game.
Taj Bradley Player Prop Bet: Earned Runs
Earned Runs Prop Bet Odds:
- Earned Runs 2.5 over: -120
- Earned Runs 2.5 under: -115
Trends Favoring The Over Earned Runs Prop Bet
Fenway Park profiles as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums.
Playing on the road typically reduces pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Taj Bradley in today's game.
Boston Red Sox bats as a group rank 3rd- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 9.2% Barrel%.
Boston's 92.9-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #4 squad in the game this year by this standard.
Trends Favoring The Under Earned Runs Prop Bet
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)'s judgement, Taj Bradley's overall pitching ability is in the 79th percentile out of all starters in baseball right now.
The Boston Red Sox have been the 6th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward
The league's 2nd-tallest average fence height can be found at Fenway Park.
In his last outing, Taj Bradley was in good form and allowed 1 ER.
Taj Bradley's change-up rate has increased by 13.3% from last year to this one (13.9% to 27.2%) .
Projection For Taj Bradley Earned Runs Prop Bet
Taj Bradley is projected to have 2.6 Earned Runs in this weeks game.
