Ryan Pepiot Projections, Prop Bets & Odds
Updated September 21, 2026
Updated September 21, 2026
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Strikeouts Prop Odds:
Strikeouts 6.5 over: -115
Strikeouts 6.5 under: -120
Trends Favoring The Over Strikeouts Prop
As it relates to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Ryan Pepiot in the 86th percentile among all starting pitchers in the league.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski, Joey Bart, Jared Triolo).
George M. Steinbrenner Field grades out as the #5 venue in the majors for strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Home field advantage typically bolsters pitcher stats across the board, and Ryan Pepiot will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Ryan Pepiot was rolling in his last GS and put up 8 strikeouts.
Trends Favoring The Under Strikeouts Shots Prop
The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Ryan Pepiot (38.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 3 GB hitters in Pittsburgh's projected lineup.
Considering the 0.56 deviation between Ryan Pepiot's 9.93 K/9 and his 9.37 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league since the start of last season in terms of strikeouts and figures to see negative regression the rest of the season.
Ryan Pepiot is projected to have 6.3 Strikeouts in today's game.
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Pitching Outs Prop Odds:
Pitching Outs 17.5 over: -120
Pitching Outs 17.5 under: -115
Trends Favoring The Over Pitching Outs Prop
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Ryan Pepiot in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall pitching talent level.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks George M. Steinbrenner Field as the 2nd-worst ballpark in Major League Baseball for batting average.
The 5th-deepest centerfield fences in MLB are found in George M. Steinbrenner Field.
The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.
Home field advantage typically bolsters pitcher stats across the board, and Ryan Pepiot will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Trends Favoring The Under Pitching Outs Shots Prop
Recording 15 outs per game per started since the start of last season on average, Ryan Pepiot places him the 23rd percentile.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in MLB since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games
George M. Steinbrenner Field has the 10th-shortest average fence height in Major League Baseball.
The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Ryan Pepiot (38.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 3 GB hitters in Pittsburgh's projected lineup.
Ryan Pepiot is projected to have 15.9 Pitching Outs in today's game.
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Earned Runs Prop Odds:
Earned Runs 1.5 over: -165
Earned Runs 1.5 under: 120
Trends Favoring The Over Earned Runs Prop
The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in MLB since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games
George M. Steinbrenner Field has the 10th-shortest average fence height in Major League Baseball.
The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Ryan Pepiot (38.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 3 GB hitters in Pittsburgh's projected lineup.
The Pittsburgh Pirates as a unit place overall in Major League Baseball since the start of last season when it comes to the maximum exit velocity of all of the baseballs their [HITTER}s have hit.
Trends Favoring The Under Earned Runs Shots Prop
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Ryan Pepiot in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall pitching talent level.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks George M. Steinbrenner Field as the 2nd-worst ballpark in Major League Baseball for batting average.
The 5th-deepest centerfield fences in MLB are found in George M. Steinbrenner Field.
The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.
Home field advantage typically bolsters pitcher stats across the board, and Ryan Pepiot will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Ryan Pepiot is projected to have 2.3 Earned Runs in today's game.
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Consensus | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hits Allowed | ov 4.5 (116) | ov 4.5 (115) | - | - | - |
Total Earned Runs Allowed | ov 1.5 (-165) | ov 1.5 (-165) | - | - | - |
Total Outs Recorded | ov 17.5 (-116) | ov 17.5 (-115) | - | - | - |
Total Pitching Strikeouts | ov 6.5 (-107) | ov 6.5 (-105) | ov 6.5 (-102) | ov 6.5 (-106) | ov 6.5 (-110) |
Walks Allowed | ov 1.5 (-135) | ov 1.5 (-135) | - | - | - |
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