Aaron Civale projections, stats and prop bet odds for Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins on Jul 21, 2024

Aaron Civale Player Prop Bet: Strikeouts

Strikeouts Prop Bet Odds:

  • Strikeouts 5.5 over: 102
  • Strikeouts 5.5 under: -130

Trends Favoring The Over Strikeouts Prop Bet

The Minnesota Twins have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien, Trevor Larnach).

Aaron Civale has a reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 7 opposite-handed hitters today.

Among all starting pitchers, Aaron Civale's fastball spin rate of 2408 rpm ranks in the 83rd percentile this year.

Trends Favoring The Under Strikeouts Prop Bet

Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which often leads to better offense.

Playing on the road typically diminishes pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Aaron Civale in today's matchup.

Aaron Civale's cutter utilization has dropped by 6% from last season to this one (37.4% to 31.4%) .

Given the 0.55 gap between Aaron Civale's 8.97 K/9 and his 8.41 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the majors this year when it comes to strikeouts and ought to see negative regression in the future.

Projection For Today's Aaron Civale Strikeouts Prop Bet

Aaron Civale is projected to have 5.7 Strikeouts in todays game.


Aaron Civale Player Prop Bet: Earned Runs

Earned Runs Prop Bet Odds:

  • Earned Runs 2.5 over: -105
  • Earned Runs 2.5 under: -130

Trends Favoring The Over Earned Runs Prop Bet

The #7 venue in the league for boosting base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.

Playing on the road typically diminishes pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Aaron Civale in today's matchup.

Aaron Civale's cutter utilization has dropped by 6% from last season to this one (37.4% to 31.4%) .

Aaron Civale has notched a 4.82 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that deals with the things a pitcher has the most control over) this year, ranking in the 19th percentile.

Placing 4th-steepest in the league this year, Minnesota Twins batters jointly have notched a 14.4° launch angle (a reliable stat to evaluate the ability to lift the ball for power).

Trends Favoring The Under Earned Runs Prop Bet

The underlying talent of the Minnesota Twins projected offense today (.308 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably worse than their .323 wOBA this year.

It may be wise to expect negative regression for the Minnesota Twins offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the luckiest offense in MLB this year.

Among all major league stadiums, Target Field's CF fences are the 10th-deepest.

Among all stadiums, the 5th-highest fences are at Target Field.

Aaron Civale has a reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 7 opposite-handed hitters today.

Projection For Today's Aaron Civale Earned Runs Prop Bet

Aaron Civale is projected to have 2.6 Earned Runs in todays game.


Aaron Civale Player Prop Bet: Pitching Outs

Pitching Outs Prop Bet Odds:

  • Pitching Outs 15.5 over: -160
  • Pitching Outs 15.5 under: 116

Trends Favoring The Over Pitching Outs Prop Bet

The underlying talent of the Minnesota Twins projected offense today (.308 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably worse than their .323 wOBA this year.

It may be wise to expect negative regression for the Minnesota Twins offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the luckiest offense in MLB this year.

Among all major league stadiums, Target Field's CF fences are the 10th-deepest.

Among all stadiums, the 5th-highest fences are at Target Field.

Aaron Civale has a reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 7 opposite-handed hitters today.

Trends Favoring The Under Pitching Outs Prop Bet

The #7 venue in the league for boosting base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.

Playing on the road typically diminishes pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Aaron Civale in today's matchup.

Aaron Civale's cutter utilization has dropped by 6% from last season to this one (37.4% to 31.4%) .

Aaron Civale has notched a 4.82 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that deals with the things a pitcher has the most control over) this year, ranking in the 19th percentile.

Placing 4th-steepest in the league this year, Minnesota Twins batters jointly have notched a 14.4° launch angle (a reliable stat to evaluate the ability to lift the ball for power).

Projection For Today's Aaron Civale Pitching Outs Prop Bet

Aaron Civale is projected to have 15.7 Pitching Outs in todays game.