Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – 5/5/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 5, 2025, both teams are struggling to find their footing in the National League Central. The Cardinals sit at 16-19, while the Pirates are even worse at 12-23. Each team is looking to turn their season around, with the Cardinals projected to start Miles Mikolas, who has had an average year with a 4.66 ERA. Meanwhile, Carmen Mlodzinski, also struggling, brings a 6.58 ERA to the mound for the Pirates.

Mikolas, ranked as the 227th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has shown flashes of potential, particularly with a 2.92 FIP that suggests he might be due for a better performance. This matchup against a Pirates offense that ranks 25th overall and 27th in batting average could provide him with a much-needed opportunity to shine.

The Cardinals' offense, while ranking 12th in MLB, boasts the 5th best batting average, indicating they can hit but have been inconsistent in generating runs. With an implied team total of 4.58 runs for this game, they are expected to score, especially against Mlodzinski, who projects to allow an average of 2.4 earned runs over 4.7 innings pitched.

With the Cardinals favored at -145, the odds reflect a belief in their ability to capitalize on the Pirates' weaknesses. This game marks the first of the series, and for both teams, it's a chance to build momentum as they look to improve their standings.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

With a 0.97 gap between Carmen Mlodzinski's 4.46 ERA and his 3.49 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game since the start of last season and should see better results going forward.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Joey Bart has a ton of pop (76th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (27.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Miles Mikolas doesn't generate many whiffs (19th percentile K%) — great news for Bart.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Pittsburgh Pirates hitters as a group rank among the elite in the league this year (8th-) as far as their 89.5-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas's fastball velocity has dropped 1.7 mph this year (91.4 mph) below where it was last season (93.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

From last season to this one, Pedro Pages's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 90.7 mph to 85.6 mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

In today's matchup, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.8% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.65 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.00 Units / 40% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.38, St. Louis Cardinals 4.29

• Date: May 5, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carmen Mlodzinski - Pirates
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals

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