Pittsburgh Pirates vs Oakland Athletics Betting Pick & Preview – 4/29/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Oakland Athletics Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 29, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates
  • Joe Boyle - Athletics
• Run Line: Pirates -1.5 130, Athletics 1.5 -150
• Money Line: Pirates -135, Athletics 115
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 55%
• Oakland Athletics - 45%

Projected Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 54.23%
• Oakland Athletics - 45.77%

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Oakland Athletics Game Preview & Prediction

The Oakland Athletics are set to host the Pittsburgh Pirates in an Interleague matchup at Oakland Coliseum on April 29, 2024. The Athletics, with a season record of 12-17, are having a tough season, while the Pirates, with a record of 14-15, are performing slightly below average.

The Athletics are projected to start right-handed pitcher Joe Boyle, who has had a challenging season so far. In his five starts, Boyle has a win/loss record of 1-4 and an ERA of 7.06, which is considered poor. However, his 4.67 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and might perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Pirates will likely start left-handed pitcher Bailey Falter. Falter has started five games this season, with a record of 2-1 and an ERA of 3.33, which is quite impressive. However, his 4.47 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate and could potentially regress in his performance.

It is worth noting that this is the first game in the series between the Athletics and the Pirates. The Athletics look to bounce back from their previous game, while the Pirates aim to continue their positive momentum.

In terms of offense, the Athletics rank as the 28th best team in MLB this season, with a particularly low team batting average ranking of 30th. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 5th in the league. On the other hand, the Pirates rank 21st in MLB, with a low team batting average ranking of 26th. Their strength lies in stolen bases, where they rank 12th.

The betting market predicts a close game, with the Athletics having a moneyline set at +115 (implied win probability of 45%) and the Pirates at -135 (implied win probability of 55%).

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter's higher utilization rate of his fastball this year (65.5 vs. 52.8% last season) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Bryan Reynolds's batting average ability is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Ke'Bryan Hayes has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.4%) and will be challenged by the league's 10th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Joe Boyle's 95.9-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 96th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

J.J. Bleday is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Oakland Athletics have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Max Schuemann, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 14 games (+10.14 Units / 59% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 117 games (+14.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• Bailey Falter has hit the Hits Allowed Under in his last 5 games (+5.45 Units / 100% ROI)

Pirates vs Athletics Prediction: Pirates 4.34 - Athletics 3.77

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