Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 4/26/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 26, 2025, in a matchup that showcases a stark contrast in team performance this season. The Dodgers, with a solid 16-10 record, are riding high and are currently positioned well in the standings, while the Pirates sit at 11-16, struggling to find their footing. Notably, the Pirates won the first game of this series behind the pitching of Paul Skenes.

On the mound, the Dodgers are set to start Roki Sasaki, who has been projected as a strong performer despite a 0-1 record this season. With a 3.20 ERA, Sasaki demonstrates effective pitching, though his 5.30 xFIP suggests he could be due for a downturn. He projects to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing an average of 2.0 earned runs, indicative of his potential to keep the Pirates' offense at bay.

Conversely, the Pirates will rely on Mitch Keller, who has posted a less impressive 4.18 ERA. Keller's 5.78 xERA raises concerns, indicating he has also experienced some luck in his performances. He projects to allow an average of 3.5 earned runs, which could open the floodgates for the Dodgers' potent offense, ranked 7th best in MLB this season. While the Pirates rank a dismal 26th overall, their offense has shown some spark, particularly in the stolen base department, ranking 4th.

With the Dodgers' bullpen evaluating as the 4th best in MLB, they are well-equipped to seal the game late. Bettors might take note of the Dodgers' hefty moneyline of -260, which reflects their significant advantage heading into this game. Overall, the Dodgers appear poised to capitalize on their momentum against a struggling Pirates squad.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mitch Keller's 92.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.6-mph drop off from last year's 94.5-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme flyball hitters like Tommy Pham tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Roki Sasaki.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Roki Sasaki is an extreme groundball pitcher (42.8% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #5 HR venue in the majors — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Michael Conforto is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Max Muncy pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 8th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.85 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+5.00 Units / 56% ROI)
• Tommy Edman has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+9.20 Units / 37% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.85, Los Angeles Dodgers 5.51

• Date: April 26, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates
  • Roki Sasaki - Dodgers

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