Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction – 4/22/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

On April 22, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Angel Stadium for the first game of their interleague series. The Angels are enjoying an above-average season with an 11-10 record, while the Pirates are struggling at 8-15. The Angels are currently projected to start right-handed pitcher Jose Soriano, who has been solid this year with a 3.16 ERA, ranking him as the 44th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. In contrast, the Pirates will counter with left-handed pitcher Bailey Falter, who has had a rough start to the season with a 4.91 ERA and is considered one of the weaker pitchers in the league.

The Angels' offense, while ranking 22nd in MLB in batting average, has been potent in terms of power, sitting 4th in home runs with 33. This could bode well against Falter, who is a high-flyball pitcher, potentially turning his mistakes into home runs. On the other hand, the Pirates' offense ranks 28th overall and 29th in batting average, making it challenging for them to capitalize on Soriano's low strikeout rate and high groundball percentage.

Betting lines indicate that the Angels are significant favorites with a moneyline of -180, reflecting a strong implied team total of 4.82 runs. Meanwhile, the Pirates are underdogs at +155, with a low implied total of 3.68 runs. Given the current form of both teams and the matchup of pitchers, the Angels appear well-positioned to take this game, especially considering their power advantage against Falter's flyball tendencies.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #6 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

This season, Bryan Reynolds has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98.6 mph compared to last year's 94.1 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Jose Soriano has used his sinker 10.8% more often this year (57.7%) than he did last year (46.9%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Pittsburgh's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Mike Trout, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 9th-best batter in the majors.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.00 Units / 74% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 51% ROI)
• Joey Bart has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+8.25 Units / 31% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.85, Los Angeles Angels 5.41

• Date: April 22, 2025
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates
  • Jose Soriano - Angels

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