Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction – 4/11/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 11, 2025, in what is shaping up to be a pivotal matchup for both teams, as they both struggle this season with identical 5-8 records. With both teams looking to turn their fortunes around, the magnitude of this National League Central contest is amplified by their recent performances; the Reds lost their last game 8-6 while the Pirates are coming off a 2-1 victory, showing slightly better form.

Projected starting pitcher Brady Singer of the Reds has been having a solid season, boasting a 2-0 record with an impressive 2.25 ERA, ranking him as the 66th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, advanced projections suggest he may not maintain this level, as his xFIP of 2.90 indicates he has been somewhat lucky so far. Singer’s ability to generate strikeouts (30.6 K%) will be crucial when facing the Pirates, who have the 3rd most strikeouts in the league.

On the other side, Bailey Falter is projected to start for the Pirates. With an ERA of 8.10 and a 0-1 record, he has struggled significantly this season. His xFIP of 3.92 suggests that he might improve, but the Reds will hope his troubles continue. Falter tends to pitch to contact, which could play into the hands of a Reds offense that ranks 27th in the league but shows some signs of life.

With the Reds favored at -160, the moneyline indicates they have an implied total of 4.40 runs. Despite their offensive struggles, this matchup presents an opportunity for Cincinnati to capitalize on a struggling pitcher. The combination of Singer’s strong strikeout ability and the Pirates' tendency to swing and miss could be the edge the Reds need to secure the win.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter has used his four-seamer 6.8% less often this season (41.7%) than he did last season (48.5%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Tommy Pham is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the worst out of all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Elly De La Cruz has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 95.6-mph average to last season's 91.8-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jeimer Candelario pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.2% — 94th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• Jeimer Candelario has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.85 Units / 41% ROI)

• Date: April 11, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates
  • Brady Singer - Reds

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